Episode 340 · 2025-06-22 · 01:03:22 · Original in Finnish
NATO 5 per cent, SAK 0 per cent | Jarmo Lindberg, Ville Valkonen | Negotiator 340
Originally published as “NATO 5 SAK 0 prosenttia | Jarmo Lindberg Ville Valkonen | Neuvottelija 340”
MPs Jarmo Lindberg and Ville Valkonen work through what NATO's five per cent defence spending target actually contains and how it would be financed. The two halves belong to different disciplines: first defence — what the five per cent consists of, why drones do not replace fighters, what Finland's dispersed defence means and how the reserve is counted — and then financing, where a wealth tax proposal is judged insufficient in scale. Also covered: defence inflation, the EU's SAFE mechanism and Rearm Europe.
Core theses
- The five per cent is a composition question before it is a money question: what counts toward it decides how hard it is to reach.
- Drones do not replace manned aircraft, and the guest who commanded an air force says so against a widely repeated claim.
- Defence inflation means a budget increase buys less capability than the headline suggests.
- A wealth tax is judged insufficient by scale rather than by principle: hundreds of millions against a need in the billions.
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Summary
MPs Jarmo Lindberg and Ville Valkonen work through what NATO’s five per cent defence spending target actually contains and how it would be financed. The two halves belong to different disciplines: first defence — what the five per cent consists of, why drones do not replace fighters, what Finland’s dispersed defence means and how the reserve is counted — and then financing, where a wealth tax proposal is judged insufficient in scale. Also covered: defence inflation, the EU’s SAFE mechanism and Rearm Europe.
What the five per cent contains
The useful half is definitional. Before the target is affordable or not, it has to be clear what counts toward it — procurement, personnel, infrastructure, and whether a conscript reserve can be included. Lindberg’s correction on drones belongs here too: they do not replace manned aircraft, and he commanded an air force.
Defence inflation, and paying for it
An increase in the budget buys less capability than the headline implies, because the prices in this market rise with the demand. On financing, the wealth tax proposal is rejected on scale rather than on principle — hundreds of millions against a need counted in billions.
Note on the chapter list
The show notes advance on a constant 180-second grid rather than at topic changes, so no chapters are published on this page.
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The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: NATO 5 SAK 0 prosenttia | Jarmo Lindberg Ville Valkonen | Neuvottelija 340. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
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Negotiation Strategy, Leverage and Power: Reading the Counterparty You Actually Have
A negotiation guide from the co-author of Neuvotteluvalta — the sources of leverage, BATNA and anchoring in practice, using information asymmetry, breaking deadlocks, and what to do when the counterparty negotiates on power rather than consensus. Grounded in Neuvottelija conversations and two decades of negotiation writing.
People and topics
Guests: Jarmo Lindberg, Ville Valkonen
Topics: Geopolitics Finnish Economy & Policy