Episode 406 · 2026-09-07 · 01:08:40 · Original in Finnish
Russia's unsafe skies | Pekka Toveri | Negotiator 406
Originally published as “Venäjän turvaton taivas | Pekka Toveri | Neuvottelija 406”
Member of the European Parliament and former chief of intelligence, Major General (ret.) Pekka Toveri assesses the Ukraine–Russia war from Brussels on the edge of winter. Zelenskyi has declared Russian airspace unsafe, Putin is preparing a quiet mobilisation for after the Duma elections and Russia's monthly losses now exceed its recruitment — but the Iran war took the Patriot missiles and ballistic missiles are getting through. Toveri explains how Ukraine is restoring movement to the battlefield under cover of the drone bubble, why glide bombs are its worst problem, and how Flamingo, ground robots and AI weapons are changing the war. It closes on the EU's 90 billion in financing, the growth of European defence budgets and the quality of Finland's conscript army.
Core theses
- Russia's monthly losses now exceed its recruitment, which is the number that decides how long the current tempo can be sustained.
- Glide bombs, not drones, are Ukraine's worst problem, and the answer to them is air defence and fighters rather than more drones.
- The Iran war drew down Patriot stocks, so a shortage in one theatre is felt directly in another.
- Movement is returning to the battlefield under the cover of the drone bubble, which changes what armour and artillery are for rather than making them obsolete.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Pekka Toveri from Brussels, and a military career
- 02:01 — The difference between T-55, T-72 and Leopard
- 04:31 — Zelenskyi declares Russian airspace unsafe
- 06:04 — The Duma elections and a quiet mobilisation
- 08:07 — Why Russians do not rebel
- 10:28 — Russia's losses exceed its recruitment
- 11:11 — Fedorov's departure, Starlink and Syrskyi
- 14:58 — Ukraine's personnel problem and rotation
- 16:05 — Tanks and restoring movement to the battlefield
- 17:37 — The drone bubble and mechanised assaults
- 19:44 — How artillery tactics changed
- 21:48 — Glide bombs are Ukraine's worst problem
- 23:12 — F-16s, radar aircraft and the attrition of Russian air power
- 24:56 — Winter is coming: ballistic missiles and the Patriot shortage
- 27:25 — Pressure on Putin, and an offensive on three fronts
- 29:56 — The Iran war ate the Patriots
- 31:58 — North Korea and Iran learn from Russia
- 34:16 — The limits of missile production and the effect of bombardment
- 35:58 — Revenge copies revenge: energy and logistics
- 38:20 — Crimea as an island, and the Kerch bridge
- 41:12 — Ukraine's defence industry moves west
- 43:11 — Air defence over Moscow and over Putin
- 45:21 — Chinese copies and the S-400 used against ground targets
- 47:22 — Flamingo and Ukrainian ballistic missiles
- 49:20 — Ground robots and AI weapons at the front
- 53:16 — The EU's 90 billion in financing for Ukraine
- 55:31 — NATO's 3.5 per cent and building capability
- 57:29 — From innovation to product, at war speed and at peace speed
- 59:07 — The EIB taxonomy and growing defence budgets
- 1:00:59 — The extremes object, the centre supports
- 1:02:52 — Finnish conscription and the quality of its leaders
- 1:06:15 — Martin Paasi on bloc voting and tax rises
Summary
Member of the European Parliament and former chief of intelligence, Major General (ret.) Pekka Toveri assesses the Ukraine–Russia war from Brussels on the edge of winter. Zelenskyi has declared Russian airspace unsafe, Putin is preparing a quiet mobilisation for after the Duma elections and Russia’s monthly losses now exceed its recruitment — but the Iran war took the Patriot missiles and ballistic missiles are getting through. Toveri explains how Ukraine is restoring movement to the battlefield under cover of the drone bubble, why glide bombs are its worst problem, and how Flamingo, ground robots and AI weapons are changing the war. It closes on the EU’s 90 billion in financing, the growth of European defence budgets and the quality of Finland’s conscript army.
Where the war stands
The assessment is built on two numbers rather than on a narrative. Russia’s monthly losses now exceed its recruitment, which sets a ceiling on how long the present tempo can hold; and the Patriot interceptors that would answer ballistic missiles were drawn down by the Iran war, which is why they are getting through now.
What is actually changing
Toveri’s reading of the battlefield is that movement is returning under the cover of the drone bubble — armour and artillery are not obsolete, their tactics have changed. The worst problem is not drones but glide bombs, and the answer to those is air defence and fighters. The closing third turns to Europe: the EU’s 90 billion in financing, NATO’s 3.5 per cent, and how long it takes to turn an innovation into a delivered product in peacetime.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Venäjän turvaton taivas | Pekka Toveri | Neuvottelija 406. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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Explore the ideas in depth
Guides connected to this conversation, with frameworks and further reading.
Negotiation Strategy, Leverage and Power: Reading the Counterparty You Actually Have
A negotiation guide from the co-author of Neuvotteluvalta — the sources of leverage, BATNA and anchoring in practice, using information asymmetry, breaking deadlocks, and what to do when the counterparty negotiates on power rather than consensus. Grounded in Neuvottelija conversations and two decades of negotiation writing.
People and topics
Guests: Pekka Toveri
Topics: Geopolitics