---
title: "Russia's unsafe skies | Pekka Toveri | Negotiator 406"
titleOriginal: "Venäjän turvaton taivas | Pekka Toveri | Neuvottelija 406"
episodeNumber: "406"
guest: "Pekka Toveri"
datePublished: 2026-09-07
duration: "01:08:40"
youtube: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc"
originalLanguage: "fi"
topics: ["geopolitics"]
subtitleMethod: "none"
provenance: "Owner page assembled from YouTube metadata, the neuvottelija.fi episode record and the publisher's own chapter marks, translated one for one; their spacing is irregular and matches the recording. No transcript is published here — the channel has no English caption track for this episode. Note a numbering discrepancy on the Finnish side: the owning page at neuvottelija.fi carries 407 in its title and slug while this is episode 406, which is why check-canonicals reports it; the URL is nonetheless the page's own canonical and resolves."
fiCanonical: "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/845-venajan-turvaton-taivas-pekka-toveri-neuvottelija-407"
canonical: https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep406-venajan-turvaton-taivas-pekka-toveri/
---
# Russia's unsafe skies | Pekka Toveri | Negotiator 406

English subtitles are not available on this page. This is an episode summary, not a curated transcript.

## Chapters

- [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=0s) Pekka Toveri from Brussels, and a military career
- [02:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=121s) The difference between T-55, T-72 and Leopard
- [04:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=271s) Zelenskyi declares Russian airspace unsafe
- [06:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=364s) The Duma elections and a quiet mobilisation
- [08:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=487s) Why Russians do not rebel
- [10:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=628s) Russia's losses exceed its recruitment
- [11:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=671s) Fedorov's departure, Starlink and Syrskyi
- [14:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=898s) Ukraine's personnel problem and rotation
- [16:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=965s) Tanks and restoring movement to the battlefield
- [17:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1057s) The drone bubble and mechanised assaults
- [19:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1184s) How artillery tactics changed
- [21:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1308s) Glide bombs are Ukraine's worst problem
- [23:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1392s) F-16s, radar aircraft and the attrition of Russian air power
- [24:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1496s) Winter is coming: ballistic missiles and the Patriot shortage
- [27:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1645s) Pressure on Putin, and an offensive on three fronts
- [29:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1796s) The Iran war ate the Patriots
- [31:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=1918s) North Korea and Iran learn from Russia
- [34:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2056s) The limits of missile production and the effect of bombardment
- [35:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2158s) Revenge copies revenge: energy and logistics
- [38:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2300s) Crimea as an island, and the Kerch bridge
- [41:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2472s) Ukraine's defence industry moves west
- [43:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2591s) Air defence over Moscow and over Putin
- [45:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2721s) Chinese copies and the S-400 used against ground targets
- [47:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2842s) Flamingo and Ukrainian ballistic missiles
- [49:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=2960s) Ground robots and AI weapons at the front
- [53:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=3196s) The EU's 90 billion in financing for Ukraine
- [55:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=3331s) NATO's 3.5 per cent and building capability
- [57:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=3449s) From innovation to product, at war speed and at peace speed
- [59:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=3547s) The EIB taxonomy and growing defence budgets
- [1:00:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=3659s) The extremes object, the centre supports
- [1:02:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=3772s) Finnish conscription and the quality of its leaders
- [1:06:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc&t=3975s) Martin Paasi on bloc voting and tax rises

## Summary

Member of the European Parliament and former chief of intelligence, Major General (ret.) Pekka Toveri assesses the Ukraine–Russia war from Brussels on the edge of winter. Zelenskyi has declared Russian airspace unsafe, Putin is preparing a quiet mobilisation for after the Duma elections and Russia's monthly losses now exceed its recruitment — but the Iran war took the Patriot missiles and ballistic missiles are getting through. Toveri explains how Ukraine is restoring movement to the battlefield under cover of the drone bubble, why glide bombs are its worst problem, and how Flamingo, ground robots and AI weapons are changing the war. It closes on the EU's 90 billion in financing, the growth of European defence budgets and the quality of Finland's conscript army.

## Where the war stands

The assessment is built on two numbers rather than on a narrative. Russia's monthly losses
now exceed its recruitment, which sets a ceiling on how long the present tempo can hold;
and the Patriot interceptors that would answer ballistic missiles were drawn down by the
Iran war, which is why they are getting through now.

## What is actually changing

Toveri's reading of the battlefield is that movement is returning under the cover of the
drone bubble — armour and artillery are not obsolete, their tactics have changed. The worst
problem is not drones but glide bombs, and the answer to those is air defence and fighters.
The closing third turns to Europe: the EU's 90 billion in financing, NATO's 3.5 per cent,
and how long it takes to turn an innovation into a delivered product in peacetime.


## Watch

The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: [Venäjän turvaton taivas | Pekka Toveri | Neuvottelija 406](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCPWOpgS8xc).
A Finnish edition of this episode is published at [www.neuvottelija.fi](https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/845-venajan-turvaton-taivas-pekka-toveri-neuvottelija-407).

## In depth

The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode:
[English](https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/ep406-venajan-turvaton-taivas-pekka-toveri/) · [suomeksi](https://www.neuvottelija.fi/research/ep406-venajan-turvaton-taivas-pekka-toveri/).

## Explore the ideas in depth

- [Negotiation Strategy, Leverage and Power: Reading the Counterparty You Actually Have](https://www.neuvottelija.com/guides/negotiation-strategy-leverage-and-power/): A negotiation guide from the co-author of Neuvotteluvalta — the sources of leverage, BATNA and anchoring in practice, using information asymmetry, breaking deadlocks, and what to do when the counterparty negotiates on power rather than consensus. Grounded in Neuvottelija conversations and two decades of negotiation writing.

---

Cite as: Sami Miettinen, Neuvottelija — Russia's unsafe skies | Pekka Toveri | Negotiator 406, https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep406-venajan-turvaton-taivas-pekka-toveri/, 2026-09-07. For quotes include episode 406 and timestamp.