Episode 203 · 2023-07-24 · 17:15 · Original in Finnish
Purra, ministerial resignations, taxes and opinion polls | Sami Miettinen | Negotiator 203
Originally published as “Gallup-pelleilyä Riikka Purra | Sami Miettinen | Neuvottelija 203”
A July 2023 summer episode in which Sami Miettinen goes through the season's surveys alone: a broadcaster's online panel on Riikka Purra's resignation, two Twitter polls that say the opposite, a newspaper poll, and the channel's own votes. None of the surveys named is a probability sample, which is the thread running through the episode. Its weightiest single claim is an eight billion euro error in a reported tax rate, set out so a reader can check it. A solo episode and the host's own commentary throughout.
Core theses
- None of the surveys discussed is a probability sample, which limits what any of them can support — including the ones whose results the host likes.
- Two Twitter polls reaching opposite conclusions about the same question is the cleanest illustration of that limit.
- The eight billion euro tax rate claim is set out in enough detail to be checked, which is the right standard for a contested number.
- A solo episode: the commentary is the host's own throughout.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Summer greetings, and the theme: opinion polls
- 00:33 — A broadcaster's survey on Purra's resignation, and a small sample
- 01:18 — Two Twitter polls saying the opposite
- 02:40 — The channel's own polls on government formation before the election
- 03:59 — A newspaper poll: the right-wing government still has support
- 05:12 — A minister's resignation, and 23 changes under the previous government
- 06:39 — A request for company analyses from smallest to largest
- 07:24 — Prigozhin's mutiny, and a guess at his fate
- 08:15 — Guest appearances, and Credit Suisse
- 09:28 — Finland is a poor Western country
- 10:07 — What device are you watching on: thoughts on 4K
- 11:40 — A newspaper's tax rate error and the eight billion illusion
- 13:57 — Ukraine's grain agreement
- 15:49 — Women's membership of the stock exchange club as a negotiation problem
Summary
A July 2023 summer episode in which Sami Miettinen goes through the season’s surveys alone: a broadcaster’s online panel on Riikka Purra’s resignation, two Twitter polls that say the opposite, a newspaper poll, and the channel’s own votes. None of the surveys named is a probability sample, which is the thread running through the episode. Its weightiest single claim is an eight billion euro error in a reported tax rate, set out so a reader can check it. A solo episode and the host’s own commentary throughout.
The thread
None of the surveys in this episode is a probability sample: an online panel, two Twitter polls and the channel’s own votes. The most useful moment is the two Twitter polls reaching opposite conclusions about the same question, which makes the limitation concrete rather than theoretical — and it applies equally to the results the host welcomes.
The checkable claim
The eight billion euro error in a reported tax rate is set out with enough of its working shown that a reader can test it, which is the standard a contested number deserves.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Gallup-pelleilyä Riikka Purra | Sami Miettinen | Neuvottelija 203. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.