Episode 208 · 2023-08-22 · 54:35 · Original in Finnish
Finland's economy and the second cold war | Ville Valkonen | Negotiator 208
Originally published as “Suomen talous ja Toinen kylmä sota | Ville Valkonen | Neuvottelija 208”
National Coalition MP Ville Valkonen joins Sami Miettinen two months into Petteri Orpo's government. The episode works through the programme's economic section in order: housing, property tax, the labour market, social security, taxation, and where the six billion euro adjustment is supposed to come from. The most interesting single figure is inheritance tax — some 800 million a year out of a tax take above 110 billion — and the question built around it of what changing the tax type would actually cost. It closes on the shift to a second cold war and Finland's position in it.
Core theses
- Inheritance tax raises about 800 million against a tax take above 110 billion, which reframes the argument from revenue to behaviour.
- The adjustment is presented as growth measures plus spending cuts rather than as either alone, and the episode is specific about which is which.
- Housing policy in the programme is market-led, and the guest defends that rather than denying it.
- The guest is a governing-party MP defending a programme he helped pass, with no opposing voice present.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Ville Valkonen, on the channel for the third time
- 00:35 — The public wanted a shift to the right, and the government delivers on labour law
- 02:10 — Changes in the property market
- 02:59 — The government's housing policy is market-led
- 05:01 — Municipal minimum property taxes as part of balancing the budget
- 06:39 — Is this a frightening moment to own or invest in housing
- 07:35 — Testing the claim that housing benefit does not raise rents
- 08:25 — Housing investment is still relatively low risk: leverage and tenants
- 11:31 — Cutting bureaucratic clutter: liberalising zoning and landowners' rights
- 13:54 — The big picture: Finns have lived beyond their means, with 152 billion in debt
- 16:35 — Finland's 43.2 per cent tax rate, and the improvement in the programme
- 19:05 — Changes to the labour market, social security and structures
- 21:55 — Entrepreneurs' concerns, and whether YEL funding can still be fixed
- 24:35 — Ownership steering becomes more market-based, and the Uniper mistake
- 26:06 — Improving growth and employment: an illegal strike is not a human right
- 27:34 — Balancing public finances: ending the debt rally with growth and savings
- 29:01 — Tax policy supports work and families with children
- 31:45 — Why Finland has to make big structural changes now: ageing and demographics
- 33:25 — Immigration policy, and Finns' opportunities to work
- 37:09 — Finland's low wealth against the other Nordics: will inheritance tax become a capital gains tax
- 39:45 — Two-way debate on X, and the Laffer curve
- 43:08 — Alexander Stubb would be a good president amid change
- 46:01 — Would an episode on Stubb's nominee register reform be a good idea
- 48:56 — The world has entered a second cold war: authoritarian states want to change the order
- 52:44 — Finland's role, and the demand for China analysis
- 54:10 — Inner Circle: Namibia, taekwondo and Mensa
Summary
National Coalition MP Ville Valkonen joins Sami Miettinen two months into Petteri Orpo’s government. The episode works through the programme’s economic section in order: housing, property tax, the labour market, social security, taxation, and where the six billion euro adjustment is supposed to come from. The most interesting single figure is inheritance tax — some 800 million a year out of a tax take above 110 billion — and the question built around it of what changing the tax type would actually cost. It closes on the shift to a second cold war and Finland’s position in it.
The number that reframes the argument
Inheritance tax raises roughly 800 million euros a year against a total tax take above 110 billion. Once that is on the table the argument stops being about revenue and becomes one about behaviour — lock-in on business succession, and what changing the type of tax rather than the rate would cost.
The programme, taken in order
Housing, property tax, the labour market, social security, taxation, and the six billion adjustment. The useful thing is the sequence: the guest is specific about which part is meant to come from growth and which from cuts, which is more than the public argument usually offers.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Suomen talous ja Toinen kylmä sota | Ville Valkonen | Neuvottelija 208. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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Negotiation Strategy, Leverage and Power: Reading the Counterparty You Actually Have
A negotiation guide from the co-author of Neuvotteluvalta — the sources of leverage, BATNA and anchoring in practice, using information asymmetry, breaking deadlocks, and what to do when the counterparty negotiates on power rather than consensus. Grounded in Neuvottelija conversations and two decades of negotiation writing.
People and topics
Guests: Ville Valkonen
Topics: Finnish Economy & Policy Geopolitics