Episode 213 · 2023-09-29 · 44:50 · Original in Finnish
The negotiating president | Pekka Haavisto | Negotiator 213
Originally published as “Neuvotteleva Presidentti | Pekka Haavisto | Neuvottelija 213”
Presidential candidate Pekka Haavisto joins Sami Miettinen four months before the election. The spine of the episode is four negotiating theses Haavisto formulated out of the Darfur peace talks: giving space and listening with the other side, directness even about genocide, consistent truthfulness with no separate story for each party, and the rule that a warning must be carried out. Around them sit the good cop / bad cop arrangement of the NATO process with Turkey and Hungary, the question of what diplomacy can still do inside a war, and a critique of Europe's Africa policy that lands on moralism.
Core theses
- A warning must be carried out: a threat without follow-through spends credibility that cannot be rebought.
- Consistent truthfulness means no separate story for each party, which is harder than honesty and is what makes mediation possible.
- The good cop / bad cop arrangement in the NATO process was a deliberate division of roles rather than a disagreement.
- The guest was a presidential candidate when this was recorded, which the article states rather than presenting the episode as neutral.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Pekka Haavisto, raised on Albertinkatu
- 00:42 — Finlandia or the national anthem
- 01:45 — Finland's independence after the Russo-Japanese war
- 02:40 — Russia's vulnerability after the invasion of Ukraine, and Prigozhin's march on Moscow
- 04:00 — Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan: drone war and refugees
- 06:01 — Niinistö, Haavisto and Marin: good cop and bad cop with Erdoğan's Turkey
- 08:50 — Opposition to the NATO application in spring 2022, and the roles of Hungary and Turkey
- 10:54 — Negotiating with Hungary: 1956 and the experience of being left alone
- 12:40 — Finland's law on breaching the sanctity of religion, F-16s and the US
- 15:25 — Diplomacy has worked even in the middle of a war
- 16:50 — Nuclear power against climate risk, and SSAB's importance to Raahe
- 18:50 — Uusi neuvotteluvalta: the peace negotiation theses from Darfur
- 20:15 — Thesis: giving space, and listening with the other side
- 22:08 — Thesis: directness even about genocide — radical truthfulness
- 23:50 — Thesis: positive surprise through positive truthfulness, with no tactical double messages
- 24:23 — Thesis: warnings must be carried out; a threat needs backing
- 25:20 — Time limits in negotiation, and the role of emotion and shame
- 26:35 — Africa is the great unknown: China's three-part pitch against European moralism
- 28:53 — Finland's energy policy options, and Rosatom as a mistaken investment
- 31:00 — Industry and environmental activists may be close to a shared victory
- 32:00 — Identity politics in Finland, and the need for a civilised mechanism for disagreement
- 33:07 — Niinistö's concept of common sense, and a safe space for immigrant youth
- 36:20 — The missing agora, and social media as a poor substitute
- 37:37 — There is no need to export lessons: the world knows how
- 39:25 — The best presidents in Finland's history, and Risto Ryti's sacrifice
- 41:18 — Kofi Annan's courage between the great powers
- 42:30 — The League of Nations awarded Åland to Finland
- 43:36 — What do you expect from the presidential campaign
- 44:05 — Inner Circle 21: Haavisto in Reykjavik
Summary
Presidential candidate Pekka Haavisto joins Sami Miettinen four months before the election. The spine of the episode is four negotiating theses Haavisto formulated out of the Darfur peace talks: giving space and listening with the other side, directness even about genocide, consistent truthfulness with no separate story for each party, and the rule that a warning must be carried out. Around them sit the good cop / bad cop arrangement of the NATO process with Turkey and Hungary, the question of what diplomacy can still do inside a war, and a critique of Europe’s Africa policy that lands on moralism.
Four theses from Darfur
The negotiating material is the reason to read this rather than the campaign. Haavisto’s four rules came out of the Darfur talks: give the other side space and listen alongside them; be direct even about genocide; tell every party the same story rather than a tactically useful one each; and carry out any warning you issue. The last is the one with teeth — a threat that is not executed spends credibility that cannot be bought back.
The NATO process, as a division of roles
The good cop and bad cop arrangement with Turkey and Hungary is presented as deliberate rather than as disagreement between the president, the foreign minister and the prime minister, which is a more useful way to read the period than the coverage at the time allowed.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Neuvotteleva Presidentti | Pekka Haavisto | Neuvottelija 213. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
Go deeper
Explore the ideas in depth
Guides connected to this conversation, with frameworks and further reading.
Negotiation Strategy, Leverage and Power: Reading the Counterparty You Actually Have
A negotiation guide from the co-author of Neuvotteluvalta — the sources of leverage, BATNA and anchoring in practice, using information asymmetry, breaking deadlocks, and what to do when the counterparty negotiates on power rather than consensus. Grounded in Neuvottelija conversations and two decades of negotiation writing.
New Negotiation Power: The Definitive English Framework
The authoritative English presentation of Sami Miettinen and Juhana Torkki's New Negotiation Power framework: Power, Analytics, Interaction and Principles; preparation, roles, team design, trust and long-term negotiation performance.
People and topics
Guests: Pekka Haavisto
Topics: Negotiation Geopolitics