Episode 207 · 2023-08-16 · 17:19 · Original in Finnish
Qt and Revenio delivered a beating | Kevin van Dessel | Negotiator 207
Originally published as “Qt ja Revenio toi turskaa | Kevin van Dessel | Neuvottelija 207”
Kevin van Dessel joins Sami Miettinen for a short episode on two crowd favourites of the Finnish bargain bin, Qt and Revenio, both punished with heavy share price falls after the second quarter. It explains Qt's licensing model — developer licences, distribution licences and consulting — and why Revenio is the mirror image of Qt in the same hardware-to-software transition. It closes on a thesis about rates: an inverted yield curve offers the same multiple reversal without company-specific risk. Nothing in it is investment advice.
Core theses
- Qt and Revenio are mirror images in the same hardware-to-software transition, which is why they fell for opposite reasons.
- A software licensing model has three distinct revenue lines, and conflating them is how the valuation went wrong.
- An inverted yield curve offers a similar multiple reversal without company-specific risk, which is the closing argument.
- Both participants discuss holdings and nothing here is investment advice.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Kevin van Dessel of Sijoituskästi, for the second time
- 00:41 — A bull market a year ago, and Finland's bargain bin
- 01:44 — Qt and Revenio punished for their Q2 results
- 02:21 — What Qt is: a tool for software developers
- 03:34 — Developer licences, distribution licences and consulting
- 05:17 — Value moves from hardware to software
- 07:01 — Qt's valuation from 170 euros to 66
- 08:56 — Revenio: eye pressure meters and niche dominance
- 10:20 — Qt and Revenio are each other's opposites
- 11:01 — Hardware-enabled SaaS from an adviser's point of view
- 12:03 — The risk of walking over your customers
- 13:09 — Investor psychology at a 50 per cent loss
- 13:58 — Rates, and the bull case for growth companies
- 14:47 — US Treasuries and the inverted yield curve
- 15:58 — A young investor and the grandfather business of bonds
- 16:46 — Inner Circle: will Sijoituskästi overtake Rahapodi
Summary
Kevin van Dessel joins Sami Miettinen for a short episode on two crowd favourites of the Finnish bargain bin, Qt and Revenio, both punished with heavy share price falls after the second quarter. It explains Qt’s licensing model — developer licences, distribution licences and consulting — and why Revenio is the mirror image of Qt in the same hardware-to-software transition. It closes on a thesis about rates: an inverted yield curve offers the same multiple reversal without company-specific risk. Nothing in it is investment advice.
Two companies, one transition
Qt sells developer licences, distribution licences and consulting; Revenio sells eye pressure meters with software attached. They are opposite ends of the same hardware-to-software shift, which is why a single quarter punished both and for different reasons — and why the licensing model has to be understood line by line before the valuation means anything.
The closing argument
If what you are buying is a multiple reversal, an inverted yield curve offers something similar without company-specific risk. That is the most transferable idea in a short episode, and it is a thesis rather than advice.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Qt ja Revenio toi turskaa | Kevin van Dessel | Neuvottelija 207. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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People and topics
Guests: Kevin van Dessel
Topics: Investing & Markets SaaS & Software