Episode 330 · 2025-05-12 · 01:00:57 · Original in Finnish
Berkshire, Novo and Hims | Henri Blomster, Jesse Viljanen | Negotiator 330
Originally published as “Berkshire Novo Hims | Henri Blomster Jesse Viljanen | Neuvottelija 330”
Three investors work through three companies: the aftermath of Berkshire Hathaway's Omaha meeting, Novo Nordisk's position against Eli Lilly, and Hims & Hers. No investment advice is given and that is said out loud several times; all three hold positions in the companies discussed. On Berkshire the episode covers the 347 billion dollar cash pile Buffett says he does not want, GEICO's turnaround under Todd Combs, the Japanese trading houses, and why the ten per cent ownership ceiling constrains further buying. On Novo, Jesse Viljanen argues the share is far off its highs although the gap to Eli Lilly is small — and that efficacy is not the only criterion, because safety and manufacturing capacity decide. Henri Blomster argues Hims & Hers is mispriced because the market files it as a telehealth company.
Core theses
- Every participant holds positions in the companies discussed, and the episode says so repeatedly rather than once in the small print.
- On obesity drugs, efficacy is not the deciding criterion — safety and manufacturing capacity are, which is what the valuation gap misses.
- Berkshire's constraint is size: the ten per cent ownership ceiling and the scale of the cash pile limit what can be bought at all.
- The Hims argument is a classification argument: the claim is that the market has filed the company in the wrong category.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Warren Buffett, Jesse Viljanen and Henri Blomster of Asilo Asset Management
- 00:52 — Hims & Hers up 700 per cent, and the pharmaceutical angle
- 01:42 — Buffett fandom, gym equipment, Berkshire mugs and merch ideas
- 02:30 — An Inner Circle idea, and memories of the Berkshire meeting
- 02:58 — Heikki Keskiväli as sherpa: the meeting beat expectations
- 03:52 — Queuing for front-row seats, and Buffett's criticism of property
- 04:37 — Investment flats, and the difference between Munger's and Buffett's styles
- 05:48 — A fans' festival, soft Q1 results, and the best holding period being forever
- 07:30 — Greg Abel, the energy unit's results, and the anointed successor
- 09:41 — Coca-Cola, the difficulty of Buffett's scale, and the need to change strategy
- 11:20 — AmEx, the growth of card companies, and ecosystem thinking
- 13:05 — The Japanese investments, and the shortage of things to buy
- 14:57 — The motivational value of cash flow to an investor
- 16:57 — Dividends in an investment strategy, and their tax effects
- 18:53 — Berkshire's buybacks, and book value as the threshold
- 20:21 — Allocating to a global index: euro against the US
- 22:08 — The UK–US tariff deal, and the mood in European business
- 24:23 — Renewed faith in European companies, and scepticism about it
- 26:20 — Novo Nordisk's results, and its position against Eli Lilly
- 28:08 — Differences in efficacy between obesity drugs, and production questions
- 29:58 — A critique of momentum investing, and Novo outsourcing production
- 31:40 — The royalty question, and compounder risk falling from H2 on
- 33:40 — New formulations: long-acting and oral
- 35:19 — Experimental science, mental models and investment psychology
- 37:43 — Hims & Hers solving everyday problems, and the telehealth pigeonhole
- 40:09 — Real options, and Hims outside the insurance-physician complex
- 42:42 — Volatility, B2C risk, and the insurers' point of view
- 44:55 — Share price swings, Hims's competitive advantages and where it saves
- 50:38 — The Amazon and AWS comparison, and AI's role in Hims's growth
- 54:59 — Building verticals, and a scalable playbook
- 56:55 — Oura and wellbeing data: personal experience
- 58:19 — A Samsung competitor, the Apple Watch, and interest in devices
- 1:00:32 — Henri's hundred-bagger idea: flying cars and a possible sector winner
Summary
Three investors work through three companies: the aftermath of Berkshire Hathaway’s Omaha meeting, Novo Nordisk’s position against Eli Lilly, and Hims & Hers. No investment advice is given and that is said out loud several times; all three hold positions in the companies discussed. On Berkshire the episode covers the 347 billion dollar cash pile Buffett says he does not want, GEICO’s turnaround under Todd Combs, the Japanese trading houses, and why the ten per cent ownership ceiling constrains further buying. On Novo, Jesse Viljanen argues the share is far off its highs although the gap to Eli Lilly is small — and that efficacy is not the only criterion, because safety and manufacturing capacity decide. Henri Blomster argues Hims & Hers is mispriced because the market files it as a telehealth company.
Three companies, one caveat
The caveat comes first because the episode puts it first: everyone at the table owns the shares they are discussing, and no investment advice is given. What remains is the reasoning, which is worth more than the conclusions.
The arguments worth keeping
On Novo, the point that generalises is that efficacy is not the deciding criterion in obesity drugs — safety and manufacturing capacity are, and a valuation gap built on efficacy alone is measuring the wrong thing. On Hims the argument is about classification: the claim is that the market has filed it as a telehealth company and priced it accordingly. On Berkshire the binding constraint is size, not judgement — the ten per cent ownership ceiling and the sheer scale of the cash decide what can be bought.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Berkshire Novo Hims | Henri Blomster Jesse Viljanen | Neuvottelija 330. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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People and topics
Guests: Henri Blomster, Jesse Viljanen
Topics: Investing & Markets