Episode 164 · 2022-12-02 · 44:27 · Original in Finnish
The Market Is Going Up | Kevin van Dessel and Teemu Liila | Negotiator 164
Originally published as “Pörssi nousee! | Kevin van Dessel Teemu Liila | Neuvottelija 164”
Kevin van Dessel and Teemu Liila of the Sijoituskästi podcast set out to build a bull case at a moment when most listeners were expecting further falls. The conversation covers the turn in the rate cycle, what kind of inflation this is, and why the equity market prices the real economy roughly six months ahead of it. The guests take apart the triad of growth, value and quality and argue that a high policy rate is an opportunity for a growth investor rather than an obstacle. Leverage, record cash weightings, the closed IPO window and the winner's curse all get a turn. It ends on popular capitalism, how thin Finnish household equity wealth is, and why good news does not reliably lift a share price.
Core theses
- The equity market prices the real economy about six months ahead, so a bull case built during a bad quarter is not a contradiction.
- A high policy rate hurts the price of a growth company without changing the business, which is what makes it an entry point rather than a verdict.
- Growth, value and quality are three different questions about the same company, and most arguments about style are really arguments about which one is being asked.
- Record cash weightings are a sentiment reading, not a forecast — they say what investors fear, not what happens next.
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Summary
Kevin van Dessel and Teemu Liila of the Sijoituskästi podcast set out to build a bull case at a moment when most listeners were expecting further falls. The conversation covers the turn in the rate cycle, what kind of inflation this is, and why the equity market prices the real economy roughly six months ahead of it. The guests take apart the triad of growth, value and quality and argue that a high policy rate is an opportunity for a growth investor rather than an obstacle. Leverage, record cash weightings, the closed IPO window and the winner’s curse all get a turn. It ends on popular capitalism, how thin Finnish household equity wealth is, and why good news does not reliably lift a share price.
An argued position, not a prediction
The two guests take the bull side on purpose, at a point when the consensus was still looking down. Read as a forecast that would be a strange thing to publish; read as an argument — here is the strongest case the other side can make — it is the more useful format, and it is the one the episode intends.
Six months ahead
The market prices the economy it expects, not the one being reported. That lag is why a recovery in share prices can arrive while the macro data is still deteriorating, and it is the mechanical core of the bull case here.
Rates and growth companies
A higher policy rate lowers the present value of distant cash flows without touching the business that produces them. Van Dessel and Liila’s conclusion — that this is an opportunity for someone buying growth rather than a reason to avoid it — depends entirely on the business actually surviving the wait.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Pörssi nousee! | Kevin van Dessel Teemu Liila | Neuvottelija 164. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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People and topics
Guests: Kevin van Dessel, Teemu Liila
Topics: Investing & Markets