Episode 130 · 2022-04-07 · 43:47 · Original in Finnish
Hungary's Election and NATO Diplomacy | Pertti Torstila | Negotiator 130
Originally published as “Unkarin vaalit NATO-diplomatia | Pertti Torstila | Neuvottelija 130”
Pertti Torstila, former state secretary at the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs and a career diplomat, has known Hungary for close to five decades and still grows wine there. He takes apart Viktor Orbán's election victory: why the war in Ukraine became Orbán's trump card rather than his liability, and why people voted with their wallets. Torstila also explains the trauma of Trianon and what voting rights for Hungarians beyond the borders actually do. The episode covers his own part in Martti Ahtisaari's team in the Kosovo peace process, and an assessment of whether Sweden will apply at all once Finland has.
Core theses
- The war strengthened Orbán rather than weakening him, because an electorate that feels exposed rewards whoever promises to keep it out.
- Trianon is not a historical footnote in Hungarian politics but an active organising grievance, and the external voting rights are built on it.
- A diplomat's reading of an election is about what the state will now do, which is a different question from who deserved to win.
- The Kosovo process is offered as the working example of how a mediated settlement is actually assembled, by someone who was inside it.
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Summary
Pertti Torstila, former state secretary at the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs and a career diplomat, has known Hungary for close to five decades and still grows wine there. He takes apart Viktor Orbán’s election victory: why the war in Ukraine became Orbán’s trump card rather than his liability, and why people voted with their wallets. Torstila also explains the trauma of Trianon and what voting rights for Hungarians beyond the borders actually do. The episode covers his own part in Martti Ahtisaari’s team in the Kosovo peace process, and an assessment of whether Sweden will apply at all once Finland has.
Why the war helped him
The expectation abroad was that Orbán’s position on Russia would cost him the election. Torstila’s reading is the opposite and better supported: an electorate that feels close to a war rewards the candidate promising distance from it, and the campaign was fought on staying out rather than on taking a side.
Trianon is not history
The treaty that left large Hungarian populations outside the borders is a live political fact rather than a historical one, and the voting rights extended to those populations are its direct descendant. Without that, the electoral arithmetic does not make sense from outside.
From inside a peace process
Torstila worked in Ahtisaari’s Kosovo team, and the passage about it is the most concrete thing in the episode: what mediation consists of in practice, told by someone who did the work rather than someone describing it.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Unkarin vaalit NATO-diplomatia | Pertti Torstila | Neuvottelija 130. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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Explore the ideas in depth
Guides connected to this conversation, with frameworks and further reading.
Negotiation Strategy, Leverage and Power: Reading the Counterparty You Actually Have
A negotiation guide from the co-author of Neuvotteluvalta — the sources of leverage, BATNA and anchoring in practice, using information asymmetry, breaking deadlocks, and what to do when the counterparty negotiates on power rather than consensus. Grounded in Neuvottelija conversations and two decades of negotiation writing.
People and topics
Guests: Pertti Torstila
Topics: Geopolitics Leadership & Governance