Taxes, Wealth and AI | Elias Erämaja | Neuvottelija 410

Summary

The economy is better than expected — with qualifications. Elias Erämaja, chief economist of Suomen Ekonomit, agrees with the host that economists have been surprised by how well Finland is doing. But the Q2 flash estimate was halved from 0.8 to 0.4 percent, forest industry is the one sector still showing no life, and the Middle East crisis, inflation and rate rises cast a shadow. The last contraction was in 2023, and spending cuts have not visibly hurt short-term growth. Residential construction is the large upside risk: a return to its long-run average in the Helsinki region would add markedly to GDP.

Marginal tax. The top rate has fallen from 59 to 52 percent. Erämaja estimates that a further two points, to 50, would cost less than half a billion euros, and cites the Ministry of Finance’s own estimate that the self-financing rate of such a cut could exceed 100 percent in the long run. The host notes the brake built into 52 percent: a pension contribution of about 25 percent counts towards it, which is also why the self-employed YEL scheme works like a large flat tax. Erämaja points out that the Social Democrats’ proposed defence tax would raise precisely the marginal rate.

Finland and Sweden, read two ways. The host cites averages — roughly 80,000 euros per head in both countries in 2004, when Sweden abolished inheritance tax, against about 150,000 per adult in Finland and 300,000 in Sweden now. Erämaja qualifies it: the medians are close, and the gap comes from Sweden’s many very wealthy households. The host’s reply is that the wealthier half is what owns employing companies; Erämaja accepts the mechanism and takes it to growth financing.

Two disagreements stay open. On the Swedish election the host sees a left-wing turn and says left populism has vanished from Finland; Erämaja sees no left-wing landslide in Sweden and notes that the Left Alliance is polling well at home, with AI-driven uncertainty as a possible tailwind. On productivity the host describes three jobs becoming one “androidised” worker; Erämaja answers that productivity is not zero-sum — the gain can fund growth that employs the other two.

AI and the public sector. Erämaja argues that economists are well placed to use AI because the value moves from spreadsheet work to knowing what is relevant and whether a relationship is causal. For 159 billion euros of public consumption he would measure output against private-sector benchmarks, and names healthcare triage as a task AI could already do better and cheaper — labelling it his own estimate. He questions whether smaller class sizes always improve teaching.

Side work and the AI tax. Suomen Ekonomit’s survey found that 40 percent see taxation as a major obstacle to side work, and 85 percent of current side workers would or might do more with lighter tax. The host argues that intellectual work done by a local AI agent is, by the old definition, grey economy. Asked what an AI tax would even mean, Erämaja can think of only two forms: VAT on tokens, or electricity taxation of data centres.

A note on the source

The summary rests on YouTube’s automatic Finnish captions, which garble several names; those that could be resolved (Hendrik Bessembinder, Lasse Corin, Markus Hav) were, and the rest are not repeated here. Figures are given as stated in the episode except where marked as checked.

Watch

The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Verot, varallisuus ja tekoäly | Elias Erämaja | Neuvottelija 410. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.

In depth

The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.