Episode 327 · 2025-04-25 · 46:28 · Original in Finnish
The mid-term review delivered | Aki Kangasharju, Emmiliina Kujanpää | Negotiator 327
Originally published as “Väliriihi onnistui | Aki Kangasharju Emmiliina Kujanpää | Neuvottelija 327”
Etla's chief executive Aki Kangasharju and EVA's lead tax specialist Emmiliina Kujanpää work through the tax package from the Orpo government's April 2025 mid-term review. The three participants are unusually united: the top marginal rate on earned income falls from 59.4 to 52 per cent, corporate tax from 20 to 18, the flat rate for key foreign employees from 32 to 25, and the inheritance tax threshold rises from 20,000 to 30,000 euros. The most interesting passages are where the agreement cracks — Kangasharju concedes that targeted investment incentives would in theory be more efficient than a general corporate tax cut and that old capital benefits needlessly, and defends the general cut on political durability instead. Kujanpää criticises tax policy that lurches from one government to the next, including her own side.
Core theses
- The general corporate tax cut is defended on political durability rather than on efficiency, and the guest making that case says so explicitly.
- Targeted investment incentives would in theory be more efficient, and old capital benefits from a general cut without changing behaviour.
- Policy that reverses at each change of government is itself a cost, and the criticism is aimed at both sides.
- All three participants favour the package, so the episode is a discussion among allies rather than a debate.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Taxes come down: Emmiliina Kujanpää and Aki Kangasharju
- 00:34 — Kujanpää and the Austrian school
- 01:11 — Kangasharju's book on the economy
- 01:44 — Jumper economists, and the ideological colouring pencil
- 02:37 — Flattening income tax progression, and the positive effects
- 03:42 — International examples from Denmark and Sweden
- 04:49 — What Finns think is fair in earned income tax
- 05:25 — A left-leaning media against a realistic public
- 06:00 — Contradictions between the government programme and the review
- 06:31 — The limits of Risto Murto's report, and criticism of it
- 07:00 — Planned inheritance tax relief for minors
- 07:57 — What the public wants, and the popularity of tax decisions
- 08:29 — The absence of capital gains tax reform as a disappointment
- 09:00 — Wealth differences between Sweden and Finland
- 10:04 — The narrowness of VATT's inheritance tax analysis
- 11:08 — Obstacles to business succession, and the difficulty of company sales
- 12:33 — The corporate tax cut, and where its benefit lands
- 15:09 — Bureaucratic obstacles and the reality for SMEs
- 16:01 — The risk of tax rises, and the effect of lost confidence
- 16:54 — Comparing tax competitiveness: Finland, Estonia and Sweden
- 18:00 — The key employee tax cut, and returning expatriates
- 20:35 — Elite immigration, and how well tax incentives work
- 22:26 — Career problems for returnees, and the tax reform
- 24:04 — Private equity investors and long-term ownership structures
- 25:37 — Foundations, and easing the tax treatment of funds
- 27:10 — A reviving housing market, and the upside scenario
- 28:39 — Options, income conversion, and the weight of capital income
- 30:10 — Dividend taxation and unlisted companies
- 31:41 — Corporate tax against dividend tax: keeping the dynamics
- 33:14 — Political continuity, and the future of dividend tax
- 34:40 — International tax rate comparisons, and the media
- 36:11 — Playing down dynamic effects against the research data
- 37:37 — Investing in education, and widening the talent base
- 39:10 — Multi-location work, side jobs and productivity growth
- 40:48 — Union membership fees and the logic of deductions
- 42:17 — Employer contributions and even-handed tax policy
- 43:47 — The boundaries of tax rules, and precision in legislation
- 45:16 — Optimism about Finland's direction
Summary
Etla’s chief executive Aki Kangasharju and EVA’s lead tax specialist Emmiliina Kujanpää work through the tax package from the Orpo government’s April 2025 mid-term review. The three participants are unusually united: the top marginal rate on earned income falls from 59.4 to 52 per cent, corporate tax from 20 to 18, the flat rate for key foreign employees from 32 to 25, and the inheritance tax threshold rises from 20,000 to 30,000 euros. The most interesting passages are where the agreement cracks — Kangasharju concedes that targeted investment incentives would in theory be more efficient than a general corporate tax cut and that old capital benefits needlessly, and defends the general cut on political durability instead. Kujanpää criticises tax policy that lurches from one government to the next, including her own side.
Where the agreement cracks
The tax numbers are the least interesting part, because all three participants agree about them. What is worth reading is the concession: Kangasharju accepts that targeted investment incentives would be more efficient in theory than a general corporate tax cut, and that old capital benefits from the general cut without changing any behaviour — then defends the general cut anyway, on the ground that it is politically durable.
The cost of reversal
Kujanpää’s criticism is directed at the pattern rather than at a party: tax policy that is undone at each change of government carries a cost of its own, because the decisions it is meant to influence are longer than an electoral term. She applies it to her own side too.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Väliriihi onnistui | Aki Kangasharju Emmiliina Kujanpää | Neuvottelija 327. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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People and topics
Guests: Aki Kangasharju, Emmiliina Kujanpää