The Bubble Economy and Finland in a Federation | Stefan Törnqvist | Negotiator 83

Summary

Asset management professional and long-standing euro critic Stefan Törnqvist explains why the euro area has never been an optimal currency union and why Finland is drifting like driftwood towards a federation without a strategy of its own. Törnqvist opposes neither the euro nor a federation as such, but the way Finland moves towards them as the model pupil who saves itself to death while everyone else borrows and builds. The conversation covers the Nordland scenario from the 2014 book on the future of the euro, the criticism voiced by the recovery package group, articles 125 and 310 of the founding treaty, and the idea that federal debt would ultimately end up on the ECB balance sheet as a perpetual at zero interest. Sami Miettinen and Törnqvist also discuss Kirkkonummi’s mould-ridden schools and its copper library, the price of diesel and electricity as competitiveness factors, and the digitalisation of central bank money that could make commercial banks unnecessary. Finally Törnqvist sketches three end points for the world record in stimulus, namely a crash, hyperinflation or political conflict, and measures the size of the bubble with the Shiller PE ratio.

Chapters

• 00:00 — A world record in stimulus created the bubbles
• 01:25 — Guest Stefan Törnqvist from Kirkkonummi
• 02:30 — Meeting after the euro crisis and asset management
• 02:55 — Why the euro area is not an optimal currency union
• 03:20 — Germany’s Hartz reforms and southern Europe
• 04:00 — Finland overheating in 2007 and 2008
• 04:45 — The book on the euro’s future and Vesa Kanniainen’s group
• 05:00 — The EQ2 model and a parallel currency in a basket
• 05:20 — The Nordland scenario in the 2014 book
• 06:15 — Fix the municipality before the merger
• 07:00 — Do not enter a debt union while wealthy
• 07:20 — Infrastructure stays in Finland in any case
• 08:00 — Tax stimulus and making citizens wealthier
• 08:35 — Diesel, electricity and factory location decisions
• 09:14 — The recovery package group and Tuomas Malinen
• 10:00 — The corona crisis was too good to waste
• 11:00 — A step towards federation without an honest debate
• 11:45 — The Finns Party against the rest of parliament
• 12:45 — Articles 125 and 310 in the debate
• 13:20 — The 750 billion package has already grown
• 13:50 — Toni Vuorinen and the monetisation of debt
• 15:00 — A perpetual at zero interest on the ECB balance sheet
• 15:50 — Buying a kiosk in the Soviet Union and the value of money
• 16:55 — Debt haircuts and Finland’s role as model pupil
• 17:54 — The idle society and debt spent on consumption
• 18:20 — Gross domestic product as the allocation criterion
• 20:19 — Central bank mandates at the ECB and the Fed
• 21:30 — The United States as a more workable currency union
• 22:45 — Finland lacks a vision of the federation
• 23:57 — A parallel currency or a return to national currencies
• 25:00 — Pensioners, the young, the left and the right
• 25:44 — Downward flexibility in wages and the bitter pill
• 26:32 — Kirkkonummi municipal election themes and roads
• 27:26 — Zoning, space and detached houses
• 27:53 — Mouldy schools and a copper library
• 28:23 — Inflation rises in the United States and the euro area
• 29:00 — Bottlenecks and the temporary nature of inflation
• 29:59 — Negative rates removed gravity from pricing
• 30:07 — Crash, hyperinflation or political conflict
• 31:05 — Digital central bank money and the future of banks
• 32:46 — Back to a union of peace and free trade
• 34:14 — Who leaves the single currency first
• 34:53 — Not every debt is always paid
• 35:32 — The Shiller PE and the metrics of a bubble

Watch

The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Kuplatalous ja Suomi liittovaltiossa | Stefan Törnqvist | Neuvottelija 83. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.