Episode 348 · 2025-08-26 · 56:20 · Original in Finnish
Milei's economic miracle in Argentina | Aleksi Tolvanen | Negotiator 348
Originally published as “Milein talousihme Argentiinassa | Aleksi Tolvanen | Neuvottelija 348”
Aleksi Tolvanen and Sami Miettinen work through the results of Javier Milei's libertarian administration using Spanish-language sources. The episode's methodological merit is that it begins with the selection of statistics rather than with results: what the EMAE index measures, why the poverty figures are contested and what the opposition doubts. It then covers the removal of currency controls and inflation, the comparison with the Menem era, provincial cuts, the labour market, trade policy, and the standing of the Austrian school behind Milei's thinking. Both participants are sympathetic to the subject, which the episode does not conceal.
Core theses
- Starting from how the statistics are selected, rather than from the results, is what separates this from most Milei coverage in either direction.
- The EMAE index and the poverty measure are contested in different ways, and conflating them is how both sides produce the numbers they want.
- The comparison that carries information is with the Menem era rather than with the immediately preceding administration.
- Both speakers are sympathetic to the subject and no critic is present.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Aleksi Tolvanen on Javier Milei and Argentina's economy
- 00:24 — GDP figures and the selective use of statistics
- 02:07 — Argentina's economy before the Milei administration
- 03:54 — The EMAE index and the economy's corrections
- 05:13 — Removing currency controls, and inflation
- 06:58 — The opposition's doubts about the statistics, and relations with the IMF
- 10:40 — Carlos Menem's policies and the IMF's role
- 12:17 — Milei's economic policy compared with Menem's
- 13:57 — Cuts to the provinces, and the role of forecasters
- 15:57 — Martín Rozada and the poverty statistics
- 18:06 — UNICEF and the fall in child poverty under Milei
- 20:58 — The labour market and the construction sector
- 22:54 — Cuts to public sector jobs
- 24:39 — A record number in work, and the stock market's rise
- 28:10 — Falling unemployment, and the challenges of 2025
- 28:40 — Trade policy with the EU and the United States
- 30:17 — The negotiating positions in free trade agreements
- 31:53 — Milei as a hero in the Spanish-speaking world
- 33:04 — Speaking Spanish, and international diplomacy
- 34:37 — The Austrian school behind Milei's thinking
- 36:14 — Milei as an unusual libertarian leader
- 37:45 — His party's electoral history and parliamentary rise
- 41:21 — Liberalising labour law, and the resistance to it
- 42:57 — Polling for La Libertad Avanza
- 45:07 — Libertarian ideas and the Austrian school
- 46:41 — Central banking, monetary policy and the move to free markets
- 48:31 — Alexander Hamilton and the origins of US monetary policy
- 50:08 — Federalism and centralised economic policy
- 51:20 — Thoughts on a strategic bitcoin reserve
- 52:51 — Libera in Finland, and international libertarian circles
- 54:38 — Argentina's economic crises in the early 2000s
- 56:08 — Inner Circle: international libertarian circles
Summary
Aleksi Tolvanen and Sami Miettinen work through the results of Javier Milei’s libertarian administration using Spanish-language sources. The episode’s methodological merit is that it begins with the selection of statistics rather than with results: what the EMAE index measures, why the poverty figures are contested and what the opposition doubts. It then covers the removal of currency controls and inflation, the comparison with the Menem era, provincial cuts, the labour market, trade policy, and the standing of the Austrian school behind Milei’s thinking. Both participants are sympathetic to the subject, which the episode does not conceal.
Method before results
The episode opens where most coverage of Milei ends: with how the numbers are chosen. What the EMAE index measures, why the poverty series is contested, and what the opposition actually doubts are settled before any claim about improvement is made — which is what makes the later comparisons readable.
The comparison that carries information
The useful benchmark is the Menem era rather than the immediately preceding administration, because it lets the same class of policy be judged over a longer run. The Austrian school material at the end explains the reasoning behind the programme rather than defending its results.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Milein talousihme Argentiinassa | Aleksi Tolvanen | Neuvottelija 348. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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Explore the ideas in depth
Guides connected to this conversation, with frameworks and further reading.
Negotiation Strategy, Leverage and Power: Reading the Counterparty You Actually Have
A negotiation guide from the co-author of Neuvotteluvalta — the sources of leverage, BATNA and anchoring in practice, using information asymmetry, breaking deadlocks, and what to do when the counterparty negotiates on power rather than consensus. Grounded in Neuvottelija conversations and two decades of negotiation writing.
People and topics
Guests: Aleksi Tolvanen
Topics: Finnish Economy & Policy Geopolitics