Episode 31 · 2020-08-12 · 18:23 · Recorded in English
The stealth federalization of the EU | Tuomas Malinen | Negotiator 31
An English-language episode in which Tuomas Malinen lays out the mechanics of the recovery fund for an international audience: a 750-billion package split into grants and loans, allocated on GDP per capita and 2015–2019 unemployment — variables with no connection to the pandemic. He also presents GnS Economics' synthetic markka simulation, which suggests the Finnish economy would have come through the 2008 crisis substantially better with its own currency.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — Introduction: Tuomas Malinen and GnS Economics
- 01:40 — 750 billion: grants, loans and Article 310
- 03:20 — Who pays and who receives — net contributors in the euro area
- 05:00 — The criteria were chosen to fit the outcome
- 06:40 — GDP per capita and the euro's role in the divergence
- 08:20 — Finland's long decline in investment and industry
- 10:00 — Joint debt lands in member-state budgets for the first time
- 11:40 — The synthetic markka: how the simulation was built
- 13:20 — The result: roughly 40% higher investment with an own currency
- 15:00 — From 2010 to now: the debt crisis as a continuum
- 16:40 — Federation was never agreed — what should happen next
Summary
An English-language episode in which Tuomas Malinen lays out the mechanics of the recovery fund for an international audience: a 750-billion package split into grants and loans, allocated on GDP per capita and 2015–2019 unemployment — variables with no connection to the pandemic. He also presents GnS Economics’ synthetic markka simulation, which suggests the Finnish economy would have come through the 2008 crisis substantially better with its own currency.
Chapters
- 00:00 — Introduction: Tuomas Malinen and GnS Economics
- 01:40 — 750 billion: grants, loans and Article 310
- 03:20 — Who pays and who receives — net contributors in the euro area
- 05:00 — The criteria were chosen to fit the outcome
- 06:40 — GDP per capita and the euro’s role in the divergence
- 08:20 — Finland’s long decline in investment and industry
- 10:00 — Joint debt lands in member-state budgets for the first time
- 11:40 — The synthetic markka: how the simulation was built
- 13:20 — The result: roughly 40% higher investment with an own currency
- 15:00 — From 2010 to now: the debt crisis as a continuum
- 16:40 — Federation was never agreed — what should happen next
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: #negotiator 31 - Stealth Federalization of the EU (Tuomas Malinen). A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
People and topics
Guests: Tuomas Malinen
Topics: Finnish Economy & Policy