Episode 215 · 2023-10-11 · 40:33 · Original in Finnish
The second wave of renewable energy | Jussi Lilja, Toni Perätalo | Negotiator 215
Originally published as “Uusiutuvan energian 2. aalto | Jussi Lilja Toni Perätalo | Neuvottelija 215”
A commercial collaboration with Korkia, where both guests work. What survives the fund marketing is structural: the chicken-and-egg argument about power prices and investment, the point that a project's durable value lies in the grid connection rather than the land, agri-PV — solar panels raised above farmland — and a direct answer to the claim that wind power's golden age is over. Also battery storage growing at about 25 per cent a year, and why the short end of a price forecast is harder than the long end.
Core theses
- Cheap power attracts investment rather than investment producing cheap power, which inverts the usual argument about whether more capacity is needed.
- The durable value in a renewables project is the grid connection, not the land — which is why owning the site is usually not worth it.
- Agri-PV raises panels above farmland and reduces water loss in heat, making the land do two jobs.
- The episode is paid for by the guests' employer, which also sells the funds discussed.
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Key moments
- 00:00 — Jussi Lilja returns to the channel
- 00:40 — Toni Perätalo from property into renewables: power plants as a property segment
- 02:01 — Conditions for development projects vary internationally, but the big trends lift all of them
- 03:08 — The critical view: is wind power's golden age over
- 03:40 — Cheap power has to come first for investment to follow: the chicken and the egg
- 04:40 — Finland's grid is in good shape, but harder conditions elsewhere can help a project
- 05:25 — A new dimension: batteries, and even a green hydrogen economy
- 07:28 — A fateful decision at SSAB's Raahe works
- 08:28 — Korkia's fund projects in eight countries besides Finland
- 09:01 — Wind and solar are still the technologies, and development continues
- 10:10 — Price spikes are down but the general level has stayed higher: good investment prospects
- 10:50 — Agri-PV: raised solar panels over farmland, reducing water loss in heat
- 12:10 — Layered renewable solutions: hybrid projects using the land and the grid connection
- 13:40 — From consumer two-way power to electrifying industry: electrify what you can
- 15:30 — Battery storage growing 25 per cent a year, with lithium dominant at industrial scale
- 16:40 — Europe gains from the renewables trend, with protectionism in the background
- 18:50 — A 40-year investment profile: location, grid connection, residual value and recycling
- 21:40 — Country-specific expertise, and balancing power from nuclear and hydro
- 24:08 — Price forecasts: the short end is harder than the long end, and the role of derivatives
- 25:48 — Korkia's funds focus on industrial-scale solar, wind and storage but do not build them
- 27:14 — Return is not the only criterion: SFDR article 8 against article 9
- 29:39 — Fund news: the first fund closed at 70 million euros
- 30:27 — Green hydrogen as a Swiss army knife: big potential, later
- 31:02 — Diversification: renewables work best spread across dozens of projects
- 34:00 — Demand risk against the transition from fossil to renewable
- 36:22 — Redemptions in special investment funds: a closed 5+2 year fund avoids the problem
- 37:56 — Project development is less cyclical than property development, and opposition is smaller than assumed
- 40:20 — Inner Circle 23: electric cars
Summary
A commercial collaboration with Korkia, where both guests work. What survives the fund marketing is structural: the chicken-and-egg argument about power prices and investment, the point that a project’s durable value lies in the grid connection rather than the land, agri-PV — solar panels raised above farmland — and a direct answer to the claim that wind power’s golden age is over. Also battery storage growing at about 25 per cent a year, and why the short end of a price forecast is harder than the long end.
The inversion worth keeping
The public argument usually runs that Finland needs more investment so that power will be cheap. The guests put it the other way round: cheap power attracts the investment, so capacity comes first and industry follows. That is the frame the rest of the episode depends on, including their answer to the claim that wind’s golden age has passed.
Where the value sits
Not in the land. A renewables project’s durable asset is its grid connection, which is why buying the site is usually not worth it and why hybrid projects — wind, solar and storage sharing one connection — are the direction of travel. Agri-PV is the neatest version: panels raised above farmland, which keeps the field in use and cuts water loss in heat.
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Uusiutuvan energian 2. aalto | Jussi Lilja Toni Perätalo | Neuvottelija 215. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
In depth
The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode: English · suomeksi.
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People and topics
Guests: Jussi Lilja, Toni Perätalo