Episode 18 · 2020-05-06 · 32:40 · Original in Finnish
Corona Black Swan 2 | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 18
Originally published as “Korona Black Swan 2 | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 18”
Tuomas Malinen of GnS Economics and Sami Miettinen continue their analysis of the pandemic economy and clarify why its economic impact meets the criteria of a black swan. The episode identifies the two conditions required for hyperinflation, the role of central bank financing of governments, and how the interbank market can force rates up despite central bank policy. The discussion covers ECB conduct, the German constitutional court ruling on PSPP, the zombification of the banking sector, and security of supply and food as national questions. It closes on the lag before the real economy is hit, the changing role of the Fed, and creative destruction visible in M&A.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — The two conditions for hyperinflation
- 03:00 — Pandemic and its economic impact as a black swan
- 06:00 — Production capacity and the mechanics of recovery
- 09:00 — The interbank market and forced rate rises
- 12:00 — ECB mistakes and mutualised debt
- 15:00 — The German constitutional court and monetary financing
- 18:00 — Zombie banks and hidden balance sheets
- 21:00 — Security of supply and food as a national question
- 24:00 — The disconnect between markets and the real economy
- 27:00 — The role of the Fed and taxpayer liability
- 30:00 — Creative destruction and demand spikes in M&A
- 31:30 — The five phases of the crisis and the real economy hit
Summary
Tuomas Malinen of GnS Economics and Sami Miettinen continue their analysis of the pandemic economy and clarify why its economic impact meets the criteria of a black swan. The episode identifies the two conditions required for hyperinflation, the role of central bank financing of governments, and how the interbank market can force rates up despite central bank policy. The discussion covers ECB conduct, the German constitutional court ruling on PSPP, the zombification of the banking sector, and security of supply and food as national questions. It closes on the lag before the real economy is hit, the changing role of the Fed, and creative destruction visible in M&A.
Chapters
- 00:00 — The two conditions for hyperinflation
- 03:00 — Pandemic and its economic impact as a black swan
- 06:00 — Production capacity and the mechanics of recovery
- 09:00 — The interbank market and forced rate rises
- 12:00 — ECB mistakes and mutualised debt
- 15:00 — The German constitutional court and monetary financing
- 18:00 — Zombie banks and hidden balance sheets
- 21:00 — Security of supply and food as a national question
- 24:00 — The disconnect between markets and the real economy
- 27:00 — The role of the Fed and taxpayer liability
- 30:00 — Creative destruction and demand spikes in M&A
- 31:30 — The five phases of the crisis and the real economy hit
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Korona Black Swan 2 | Tuomas Malinen | Neuvottelija 18. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
People and topics
Guests: Tuomas Malinen
Topics: Finnish Economy & Policy