Episode 133 · 2022-04-19 · 37:22 · Original in Finnish
Russia in Ukraine and Victory Day | Pekka Toveri | Neuvottelija 133
Originally published as “Venäjä Ukrainassa Voiton päivä | Toveri | #neuvottelija 133”
Major General retired Pekka Toveri and Sami Miettinen assess what Russia is trying to achieve by Victory Day on 9 May and why Mariupol is both a symbolic and a strategic necessity. The episode unpacks the sinking of the cruiser Moskva, the targeting behind the Neptune missiles, and the role of Bayraktar drones as a distraction. The discussion covers the structure of the battalion tactical group, Russia's manpower shortage and recruitment from its poorest regions, and the effect of sanctions on arms production. It closes on the risks around the Finnish and Swedish NATO applications, nuclear rhetoric, and the value of a domestic defence industry.
Watch and listen
Key moments
- 00:00 — The Victory Day parade and the cult of the past
- 03:00 — The sinking of the cruiser Moskva and Neptune missiles
- 06:00 — Bayraktar as a distraction and Ukraine's information war
- 09:00 — Useful idiots and the Kursk comparison
- 12:00 — The fighting NATO narrative and the battalion tactical group
- 15:00 — Manpower shortage and recruitment from the poorest regions
- 18:00 — Command training and corruption combined; the Izium axis
- 21:00 — Azovstal the significance of Mariupol and Crimea
- 24:00 — Finland's NATO bid and nuclear rhetoric in the Baltic
- 27:00 — Why NATO would not back down and room to tighten sanctions
- 30:00 — Domestic defence industry and Russia's component shortage
- 33:00 — The limits of long range strikes and artillery ranges
- 36:00 — Criticising Mearsheimer plus Sun Tzu and Clausewitz
Summary
Major General retired Pekka Toveri and Sami Miettinen assess what Russia is trying to achieve by Victory Day on 9 May and why Mariupol is both a symbolic and a strategic necessity. The episode unpacks the sinking of the cruiser Moskva, the targeting behind the Neptune missiles, and the role of Bayraktar drones as a distraction. The discussion covers the structure of the battalion tactical group, Russia’s manpower shortage and recruitment from its poorest regions, and the effect of sanctions on arms production. It closes on the risks around the Finnish and Swedish NATO applications, nuclear rhetoric, and the value of a domestic defence industry.
Chapters
- 00:00 — The Victory Day parade and the cult of the past
- 03:00 — The sinking of the cruiser Moskva and Neptune missiles
- 06:00 — Bayraktar as a distraction and Ukraine’s information war
- 09:00 — Useful idiots and the Kursk comparison
- 12:00 — The fighting NATO narrative and the battalion tactical group
- 15:00 — Manpower shortage and recruitment from the poorest regions
- 18:00 — Command training and corruption combined; the Izium axis
- 21:00 — Azovstal the significance of Mariupol and Crimea
- 24:00 — Finland’s NATO bid and nuclear rhetoric in the Baltic
- 27:00 — Why NATO would not back down and room to tighten sanctions
- 30:00 — Domestic defence industry and Russia’s component shortage
- 33:00 — The limits of long range strikes and artillery ranges
- 36:00 — Criticising Mearsheimer plus Sun Tzu and Clausewitz
Watch
The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: Venäjä Ukrainassa Voiton päivä | Toveri | #neuvottelija 133. A Finnish edition of this episode is published at www.neuvottelija.fi.
People and topics
Guests: Pekka Toveri
Topics: Geopolitics