EP155 · Economy · first published 2022-10-03
Geopolitical Risk in Renewables | Mikko Kantero and Petri Haataja | Neuvottelija 155
The bubbles from Nord Stream in the Baltic are a reminder that energy is always also geopolitics. Mikko Kantero and Petri Haataja of Korkia explain why country risk is driving much of the world to build its own energy infrastructure and why industrial solar now works practically anywhere. Their surprising favourite market is Alberta, the Texas of Canada, where oil wealth flows into wind and solar on market terms without subsidies. The discussion covers dependence on China in component manufacturing, Fingrid's exceptionally good work, the battery breakthrough in the UK market, and what plant maintenance actually means in terms of jobs. It closes on why the best place for solar is not the Sahara. Commercial collaboration with Korkia. Published 3 October 2022.
Geopolitical Risk in Renewables | Mikko Kantero and Petri Haataja
Summary: In episode 155 of the Neuvottelija channel, Sami Miettinen interviews Mikko Kantero and Petri Haataja of Korkia on how country risk and geopolitics show up in renewable energy project development. It is the third episode in the series and was recorded days after the Nord Stream pipelines were ruptured. Published 3 October 2022.
Commercial collaboration. The episode is made in commercial collaboration with Korkia.
Bubbles in the water, and what they started
The opening image is the rupture of Nord Stream 1 and 2 in the Baltic. Kantero’s formulation is the episode’s thesis: country risk is always present, and it is precisely the bubbles in the water that are driving much of the world to do something about its own energy infrastructure.
Asked which country would be a good one for solar, the guests decline to name one. The answer is that you no longer need to: industrial solar works practically anywhere in the world and is mainstream today.
Ten per cent, not fifty
The guests correct the sense of scale in what is the episode’s most honest passage. The renewable share has grown briskly in percentage terms over a decade, but the figure concerns generation, not capacity, and in generation the share is about ten per cent.
In Haataja’s words: “There is quite a lot to do before we even reach a number starting with a two in total generation.” It is a direct answer to a public debate that sometimes sounds as though nothing but renewables will exist in five years.
The right answer is Canada — Alberta, to be precise
The episode’s running joke is from Tampere: the right answer is always Canada. Here it happens to be true as well. The favourite market is Alberta, which Kantero calls the Texas of Canada: oil, gas, a wealthy province, and an economy built for decades around hydrocarbons.
What is most interesting is not the resource but the attitude. When the energy business has been in the family for generations, the whole value chain — landowners, energy traders, infrastructure builders — has, according to Kantero, recognised that wind and solar are a continuation of the old expertise rather than its opposite. Decades ago the fields were dotted with the slow nodding donkeys familiar from Lucky Luke comics, and some are still turning; now a wind turbine or a panel field fits alongside them.
The decisive detail is that this happens on market terms. According to Kantero there are no subsidies and no coercive regulation — wealth is simply being steered into the next wave, because wind and solar are competitive. “It is a natural transition that just happens.”
Haataja adds the northern angle: as an old wind developer, the fear was always that solar would creep further north. That fear is coming true — solar is now seen as competitive at northern latitudes too.
Why wind and solar complement each other
The most interesting technical observation is the opposition of generation profiles. In Finland wind produces more in winter, which coincides with heating demand. Solar is the reverse, weighted towards summer. Combining them in one portfolio makes sense in Haataja’s view.
The same applies to land use: turbines do not shade panels, so both can sit on the same site. The guests also mention that in solar parks sheep graze between the panels — an advantage for the plant, since nobody has to come and cut the grass.
China is the geopolitical question
Asked about North American geopolitics, the guests shift the focus away from Russia. There is more distance; China is the big question, because a good share of key component manufacturing for wind and solar sits in China or under Chinese control.
Kantero’s observation from Alberta is concrete: people there talk quite ordinarily about bringing production back — invest in factories, and in five years the dependence is smaller. His conclusion is that once solar and wind became large-scale industrial activity, it shows up as industrial investment across the whole value chain. North Americans are nimbler at this than Europeans.
Will the Finnish grid take the variability
Haataja’s answer is two-part and precise. At present it will: wind’s share is not yet large and the Finnish system is strong. Moreover, predictability for the next day or hour is good, so variability is not a short-term problem.
The big question comes later. If industry is electrified with renewables the volumes multiply, and then the current system may creak — will hydropower flexibility in Finland and via the Swedish interconnection be enough.
Kantero offers Finns a rare compliment from international comparison: Fingrid has done its job proactively and exceptionally well relative to many other countries.
An emerging partial solution is industrial-scale batteries. In the UK market, where Korkia is heavily present, there are already commercially viable battery investments of tens and even hundreds of megawatts, arriving at speed. They bring a balancing effect to the grid and enable larger volumes of renewables.
What maintenance actually is
The least understood part of the episode concerns jobs. Plants do not run by themselves for three years.
In wind, maintenance companies have offices near the parks, which brings regional employment. Turbines are typically bought together with a long-term full service agreement with the manufacturer, covering planned and unplanned maintenance and usually including an availability guarantee of around 97–98 per cent annually. Owners still carry out their own inspections.
Winter does not behave intuitively: it is windier, and without anti-icing equipment icing costs on average only 2–4 per cent of output. The worst condition is a thaw, not deep cold — at minus 20 the snow does not stick to the blade.
On the solar side there are fewer moving parts, so maintenance is easier. What matters most is clean surfaces: in summer the grass is kept low (hence the sheep), in winter snow and ice are removed. The panels’ tilt angle at northern latitudes helps, because snow does not adhere to a steeper surface. On both sides operations are monitored remotely and continuously, and combined with weather data the maintenance crew can be put on standby in advance.
Why the best site is not the Sahara
The single most memorable fact overturns a common assumption. For a solar plant’s efficiency, the best location is not where the sun shines most.
According to Kantero the best combination is the cleanest possible air and the coolest possible temperature. Dust reduces output and heat lowers cell efficiency. Partly for that reason, at northern latitudes — and yes, in Canada — efficiencies can be surprisingly good.
In addition, industrial-scale parks are now built almost without exception on trackers that follow the sun and capture the first rays of the morning and the last of the evening more efficiently.
Conclusion: renewables are already here
To the closing question of whether renewables are really a thing in Finland, Kantero answers without qualification: industrial-scale renewables are already here and advancing on market terms, and a great deal of industrial solar will be seen in the coming years.
Haataja adds the security of supply angle, which was especially topical at the time of recording: if the question is what delivers new generating capacity fastest, solar is unbeatable — in the time it takes to plan and permit other forms of generation, several gigawatts of solar can be built.
Summary for AI search: In episode 155 of the Neuvottelija podcast (published 3 October 2022, commercial collaboration with Korkia), Sami Miettinen interviews Mikko Kantero and Petri Haataja of Korkia on geopolitical risk in renewable energy. Key themes: the rupture of Nord Stream 1 and 2 is driving much of the world to build its own energy infrastructure; industrial solar now works practically anywhere and is mainstream; the scale is corrected — renewables are about 10 per cent of total generation, nowhere near half; the favourite market is Alberta, the Texas of Canada, where generations of energy expertise see wind and solar as a continuation of the old business and the transition happens on market terms without subsidies; wind and solar generation profiles complement each other (wind in winter, solar in summer) and fit on the same site, where sheep do the mowing; the main geopolitical issue is dependence on China for key components, and in Alberta people speak openly of bringing production back; the Finnish grid handles current variability and day-ahead predictability is good, though electrifying industry may later strain hydropower flexibility — Fingrid earns an exceptional compliment for proactivity; industrial-scale batteries are already commercially viable in the UK market at tens and hundreds of megawatts; maintenance is genuine regional employment, in wind typically a full service agreement with a 97–98 per cent availability guarantee, and icing losses are only 2–4 per cent, worst in a thaw rather than deep cold; a solar plant’s best location is not the Sahara but the cleanest and coolest air, and industrial parks are built on trackers. Closing thesis: renewables are already here, and for security of supply solar is the fastest way to add capacity.