---
title: "The State Pension Fund and five near-crises | Timo Löyttyniemi | Negotiator 211"
titleOriginal: "Valtion eläkerahasto kriisit | Timo Löyttyniemi | Neuvottelija 211"
episodeNumber: "211"
guest: "Timo Löyttyniemi"
datePublished: 2023-09-13
duration: "49:09"
youtube: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I"
originalLanguage: "fi"
topics: ["investing_markets","finnish_economy_policy"]
subtitleMethod: "none"
provenance: "Owner page assembled from YouTube metadata, the neuvottelija.fi episode record and the publisher's own chapter marks, translated one for one; their spacing is irregular and matches the recording. No transcript is published here — the channel has no English caption track for this episode and the Finnish one is YouTube's automatic track. The guest runs the fund whose performance is discussed and helped build the European resolution framework he assesses; the long-form write-up in the Neuvottelija AI editions states both."
fiCanonical: "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/319-valtion-elakerahasto-kriisit-timo-loyttyniemi-neuvottelija-2"
canonical: https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep211-valtion-elakerahasto-kriisit-timo-loyttyniemi/
---
# The State Pension Fund and five near-crises | Timo Löyttyniemi | Negotiator 211

English subtitles are not available on this page. This is an episode summary, not a curated transcript.

## Chapters

- [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=0s) Timo Löyttyniemi of the State Pension Fund, formerly of KOP's Prospectus
- [00:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=40s) A doctorate on corporate capital structure decisions, and Prospectus
- [01:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=79s) Share classes with different voting rights in Finland, Sweden and the EU
- [03:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=190s) When VER began, state pensions were barely funded at 8 per cent; now around 25
- [04:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=283s) The fund no longer grows: capital is returned to pay pensions
- [06:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=397s) Historic returns came from raising equity risk, and fewer illiquid holdings in a shrinking portfolio
- [08:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=510s) The zero-rate world is over: do interest-based annuities work again
- [10:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=636s) Comparing pension systems internationally: Sweden's AP funds and France's FRR
- [12:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=724s) Finland's system ranks highly for governance and the credibility of its promise
- [12:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=768s) Denmark's 2022 pension crisis and ATP's loss
- [14:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=850s) Is there an economic case for the TyEL solvency capital, and is it procyclical
- [18:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1085s) The Single Resolution Board in Brussels, and bail-in replacing bail-out
- [21:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1309s) How the host's thinking on the euro changed from the Greek bail-out to bail-in
- [23:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1391s) The euro system is less risky, at least for banks
- [24:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1445s) Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds did not follow the European playbook
- [27:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1620s) The US banking crisis: Silicon Valley Bank and deposit flight
- [29:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1795s) The risk a rising yield curve creates in the banking system
- [31:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1880s) Three ways systems change: crisis, market shift, or something new like a digital euro
- [32:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=1965s) The risk created by central bank digital money
- [34:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2078s) Money market funds as a substitute for deposits
- [35:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2125s) Löyttyniemi's blog on large market changes, and rates hitting property
- [39:23](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2363s) Five times on the brink of systemic crisis in a year: I, the energy crisis
- [40:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2430s) II, the English pension fund crisis
- [41:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2512s) III, IV and V: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse
- [43:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2610s) An inverted yield curve as a recession signal
- [44:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2680s) The market system withstands pressure and can renew itself
- [45:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2758s) American innovation capacity, and Europe's slightly better debt position
- [48:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2888s) Löyttyniemi's blog
- [48:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I&t=2922s) Inner Circle 19: how investment banks changed

## Summary

Timo Löyttyniemi, chief executive of Finland's State Pension Fund, joins Sami Miettinen. The episode is an unusual combination: the same person raised the funding ratio of Finnish state pensions from 8 per cent to roughly 25, and sat on the EU Single Resolution Board building bail-in to replace bail-out. That produces two time horizons on one subject — a fund already turned into run-off, and a banking system that came close to systemic crisis five times in a single year: the energy crisis, the UK pension fund crisis, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse.

## Two horizons, one guest

The unusual thing here is the combination. Löyttyniemi raised the funding ratio of Finnish
state pensions from 8 per cent to roughly 25 and now manages a fund in run-off — capital
flowing out to pay pensions rather than accumulating. He also sat on the EU Single
Resolution Board while bail-in replaced bail-out. One person, a thirty-year horizon and a
thirty-day one.

## Five near-crises in a year

The energy crisis, the UK pension fund crisis, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and
Credit Suisse. His reading is that public intervention was decisive in each, and that the
Credit Suisse AT1 treatment departed from the European playbook — which matters for the
next crisis rather than the last.


## Watch

The recording lives on the Neuvottelija channel: [Valtion eläkerahasto kriisit | Timo Löyttyniemi | Neuvottelija 211](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElnOctnFg4I).
A Finnish edition of this episode is published at [www.neuvottelija.fi](https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/319-valtion-elakerahasto-kriisit-timo-loyttyniemi-neuvottelija-2).

## In depth

The Neuvottelija AI editions carry a long-form write-up of this episode:
[English](https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/ep211-valtion-elakerahasto-kriisit-timo-loyttyniemi/) · [suomeksi](https://www.neuvottelija.fi/economy/ep211-valtion-elakerahasto-kriisit-timo-loyttyniemi/).

---

Cite as: Sami Miettinen, Neuvottelija — The State Pension Fund and five near-crises | Timo Löyttyniemi | Negotiator 211, https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep211-valtion-elakerahasto-kriisit-timo-loyttyniemi/, 2023-09-13. For quotes include episode 211 and timestamp.