{"title": "Megatrends for Equity Returns | Pasi Havia | Neuvottelija 416", "titleOriginal": "Megatrendeillä osaketuottoa | Pasi Havia | Neuvottelija 416", "episodeNumber": "416", "guest": "Pasi Havia", "publishedAt": "2026-10-19", "duration": "56:17", "durationIso": "PT56M17S", "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEqAP7yyXus", "fiCanonical": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/863-megatrendeilla-osaketuottoa-pasi-havia-neuvottelija-416/", "originalLanguage": "fi", "format": "full", "topics": ["investing_markets", "ai_enterprise_tech"], "description": "Pasi Havia, portfolio manager of United Bankers' UB Megatrendit fund, explains how he builds a portfolio around four megatrends: artificial intelligence and digitalisation, electrification and the energy transition, population ageing, and European defence. The fund returned more than 26 per cent in its first seven months, driven above all by AI-infrastructure names Micron, Broadcom, Lumentum and AMD. The conversation asks whether machines' insatiable demand for memory can break the semiconductor industry's old cycles, and why traditional valuation multiples lose their explanatory power under exponential growth. It also looks at circular financing in the AI value chain, companies competing with governments for capital, regulatory risk in China and Europe's position in the AI race. Sami prepares for his own AI investing challenge and tests his thesis that machines will replace human labour.", "chapters": [{"t": "00:00", "title": "Investing is not a mathematical equation you can solve", "seconds": 0}, {"t": "01:21", "title": "Pasi Havia and UB Megatrendit introduce themselves", "seconds": 81}, {"t": "02:36", "title": "Seven months and a return of more than 26 per cent", "seconds": 156}, {"t": "03:05", "title": "Sami's AI investing challenge for next year", "seconds": 185}, {"t": "03:48", "title": "The fund's four megatrends and their weights", "seconds": 228}, {"t": "04:59", "title": "Megatrend weights can be changed flexibly", "seconds": 299}, {"t": "05:47", "title": "AI replacing human labour as a new megatrend", "seconds": 347}, {"t": "06:35", "title": "Physical AI and production moving closer to home", "seconds": 395}, {"t": "07:56", "title": "From globalisation to localisation in the shadow of the Strait of Hormuz", "seconds": 476}, {"t": "08:40", "title": "The United States, China and Europe in the AI race", "seconds": 520}, {"t": "09:40", "title": "Why investing in China does not appeal", "seconds": 580}, {"t": "10:20", "title": "The memory boom, and Micron instead of Korean chipmakers", "seconds": 620}, {"t": "11:40", "title": "Micron's multiples stay low as earnings grow", "seconds": 700}, {"t": "13:03", "title": "Machines' insatiable appetite for chips drives demand", "seconds": 783}, {"t": "14:03", "title": "Nvidia, AI agents and edge computing", "seconds": 843}, {"t": "15:07", "title": "European picks ASML and BE Semiconductor", "seconds": 907}, {"t": "15:55", "title": "Custom chips: Broadcom, Google and Amazon", "seconds": 955}, {"t": "16:36", "title": "Why SpaceX and Anthropic do not fit the fund", "seconds": 996}, {"t": "19:05", "title": "Peer analysis and looking behind the multiples", "seconds": 1145}, {"t": "20:40", "title": "Musk's conglomerate and key-person risk", "seconds": 1240}, {"t": "22:18", "title": "Lumentum as precise exposure to data-centre optics", "seconds": 1338}, {"t": "23:56", "title": "Circular financing in the AI value chain", "seconds": 1436}, {"t": "25:10", "title": "Competition for capital and rising long-term rates", "seconds": 1510}, {"t": "27:44", "title": "Multiples break down under exponential growth", "seconds": 1664}, {"t": "28:57", "title": "The long underperformance of value investing, and momentum", "seconds": 1737}, {"t": "30:30", "title": "Defence, ESG and responsible investing", "seconds": 1830}, {"t": "32:30", "title": "NATO's five per cent target and European defence", "seconds": 1950}, {"t": "33:13", "title": "The Taiwan threat and China's timetable", "seconds": 1993}, {"t": "34:48", "title": "State ownership as a risk in defence companies", "seconds": 2088}, {"t": "36:32", "title": "Picks TKMS and Theon International", "seconds": 2192}, {"t": "37:01", "title": "The energy transition and America's ageing power grid", "seconds": 2221}, {"t": "38:08", "title": "The transformer shortage and the ban on Chinese imports", "seconds": 2288}, {"t": "38:37", "title": "Constellation, Quanta, GE Vernova and Vertiv", "seconds": 2317}, {"t": "39:27", "title": "AI agents picked Nexans over Vertiv in Sami's test", "seconds": 2367}, {"t": "40:39", "title": "Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in weight-loss drugs", "seconds": 2439}, {"t": "43:01", "title": "Geographic diversification and Chinese regulatory risk", "seconds": 2581}, {"t": "44:57", "title": "European regulation and Mistral's new model", "seconds": 2697}, {"t": "46:28", "title": "Finland's power grid and the data-centre opportunity", "seconds": 2788}, {"t": "49:09", "title": "Favourite stock Micron and long customer contracts", "seconds": 2949}, {"t": "50:20", "title": "Memory prices rise on data-centre buying power", "seconds": 3020}, {"t": "51:23", "title": "Physical AI as Micron's new business", "seconds": 3083}, {"t": "52:38", "title": "Local compute and open models at home", "seconds": 3158}, {"t": "53:35", "title": "Volatility and a long time horizon", "seconds": 3215}, {"t": "55:02", "title": "Sami's challenge and closing words", "seconds": 3302}], "sourceTranscriptType": "macwhisper_sbv", "subtitleMethod": "none", "provenance": "Owner page assembled from YouTube metadata, the neuvottelija.fi episode record and the publisher's own chapter marks, translated one for one; every chapter mark falls on a transcript cue. The summary was written from the episode's Finnish subtitle track as uploaded to YouTube, which carries no speaker labels, so speakers were inferred from the conversation; quotations are translated for sense, not verbatim. No English caption track exists, so no transcript is published here. Figures quoted by the participants are their own estimates; the AI articles check them against public sources and flag the divergences. Nothing in the episode is investment advice.", "slug": "ep416-megatrendeilla-osaketuottoa-pasi-havia", "guestsCanonical": ["Pasi Havia"], "guestPages": ["https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/guests/pasi-havia/"], "page": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep416-megatrendeilla-osaketuottoa-pasi-havia/", "markdown": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep416-megatrendeilla-osaketuottoa-pasi-havia/index.md", "captions": null, "transcript": null, "videoId": "nEqAP7yyXus", "dbId": null, "qaCoveragePct": 100.0, "qaSemanticVerdict": "transcript_timecoded"}