{"title": "Trump negotiates like a madman | Arto Heimonen | Negotiator 380", "titleOriginal": "Trump neuvottelee kuin hullu mies | Arto Heimonen | Neuvottelija 380", "episodeNumber": "380", "guest": "Arto Heimonen", "publishedAt": "2026-04-14", "duration": "01:03:29", "durationIso": "PT1H3M29S", "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGe3akk_934", "fiCanonical": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/771-trump-neuvottelee-kuin-hullu-mies-arto-heimonen-neuvottelija", "originalLanguage": "fi", "format": "full", "topics": ["negotiation", "geopolitics"], "description": "Author and negotiation coach Arto Heimonen returns with his book Älykäs neuvottelu – viisas vaikuttaminen. The first half reads Trump's Iran negotiations, JD Vance's fruitless 21-hour trip to Pakistan and the Strait of Hormuz crisis through negotiation theory rather than politics, and covers what the Hungarian election result does to EU decision-making by unanimity. The second half is method: status expression, question technique, buy-side negotiation, rapport and trust, and what AI is genuinely good for in preparation rather than at the table.", "chapters": [{"t": "00:00", "title": "Arto Heimonen and the book Älykäs neuvottelu – viisas vaikuttaminen", "seconds": 0}, {"t": "00:47", "title": "The Trainers' House book launch and Jari Sarasvuo", "seconds": 47}, {"t": "02:16", "title": "Heimonen's path from lawyer to negotiation coach", "seconds": 136}, {"t": "03:15", "title": "The dynamics of black belt negotiation courses", "seconds": 195}, {"t": "04:17", "title": "Status expression, and how executives practise it", "seconds": 257}, {"t": "05:42", "title": "The Overton window and theory of mind", "seconds": 342}, {"t": "06:42", "title": "Trump's Iran negotiations and the absence of strategy", "seconds": 402}, {"t": "08:41", "title": "Iran plays the whose-clock-is-ticking tactic", "seconds": 521}, {"t": "09:35", "title": "Building narratives in the international media", "seconds": 575}, {"t": "10:28", "title": "JD Vance's 21-hour negotiation in Pakistan", "seconds": 628}, {"t": "11:20", "title": "The cost of escalation and the value of pre-negotiation", "seconds": 680}, {"t": "12:16", "title": "The killing of Iran's negotiating team", "seconds": 736}, {"t": "13:12", "title": "Small-state realism in Finland's and Iran's positions", "seconds": 792}, {"t": "14:38", "title": "The role of intelligence and scenario analysis", "seconds": 878}, {"t": "15:26", "title": "The optimistic scenario and Ukraine's drone defence", "seconds": 926}, {"t": "17:10", "title": "A package solution and a golden bridge for both sides", "seconds": 1030}, {"t": "18:41", "title": "Trump's psyche and the madman tactic", "seconds": 1121}, {"t": "19:46", "title": "Hungary's election and Péter Magyar's landslide", "seconds": 1186}, {"t": "21:05", "title": "The keys to power and the possibility of lustration", "seconds": 1265}, {"t": "22:36", "title": "The problems of EU decision-making by unanimity", "seconds": 1356}, {"t": "23:44", "title": "Trump's cognitive decline and the MAGA movement", "seconds": 1424}, {"t": "25:52", "title": "An election winner's problem in taking hold of power", "seconds": 1552}, {"t": "27:12", "title": "The Economist's analysis of Trump's negotiating style", "seconds": 1632}, {"t": "28:12", "title": "A writer's working day and why writing matters", "seconds": 1692}, {"t": "29:02", "title": "Intelligent negotiation and wise influence as concepts", "seconds": 1742}, {"t": "30:16", "title": "Rapport and connecting to the other person's world", "seconds": 1816}, {"t": "31:16", "title": "Trust and psychological safety in negotiation", "seconds": 1876}, {"t": "32:24", "title": "Needs, interests and value in negotiation", "seconds": 1944}, {"t": "33:22", "title": "Principles against values as a guide to action", "seconds": 2002}, {"t": "34:32", "title": "The needs beneath the surface, and negotiation design", "seconds": 2072}, {"t": "35:59", "title": "AI in a negotiator's preparation", "seconds": 2159}, {"t": "37:13", "title": "AI glasses and the future of the negotiating table", "seconds": 2233}, {"t": "38:38", "title": "The skill of prompting, and the advantage it gives", "seconds": 2318}, {"t": "39:56", "title": "Anthropic's Claude in Word and what it does to lawyers", "seconds": 2396}, {"t": "41:22", "title": "Leverage in negotiation, and the role of information", "seconds": 2482}, {"t": "43:21", "title": "FBI techniques and Chris Voss", "seconds": 2601}, {"t": "44:25", "title": "Three phases: connection, understanding, goal", "seconds": 2665}, {"t": "45:52", "title": "Men and women as negotiators", "seconds": 2752}, {"t": "48:18", "title": "Reading personality without profiling", "seconds": 2898}, {"t": "49:13", "title": "Questions as a way of adjusting status", "seconds": 2953}, {"t": "50:42", "title": "Three categories of question in a negotiation", "seconds": 3042}, {"t": "53:03", "title": "Buy-side negotiation and framed question technique", "seconds": 3183}, {"t": "55:30", "title": "A company as a bundle of contracts, and systematising procurement", "seconds": 3330}, {"t": "57:31", "title": "The central difference between a seller's and a buyer's mindset", "seconds": 3451}, {"t": "58:40", "title": "Understanding the other side's view, and preparing with AI", "seconds": 3520}, {"t": "1:00:28", "title": "AI in negotiations — assistive intelligence against artificial", "seconds": 3628}, {"t": "1:01:59", "title": "Models against methods, and concrete tools", "seconds": 3719}], "sourceTranscriptType": "none", "subtitleMethod": "none", "provenance": "Owner page assembled from YouTube metadata, the neuvottelija.fi episode record and the publisher's own chapter marks, translated one for one; their spacing is irregular and matches the recording. No transcript is published here — the channel has no English caption track for this episode and the Finnish one is YouTube's automatic track. The guest is promoting a book published during the episode, which the long-form write-up in the Neuvottelija AI editions discloses.", "coreTheses": ["The madman tactic is readable as a strategy rather than a temperament, and reading it that way tells you what the other side has to prepare.", "Pre-negotiation is where escalation costs are actually contained; by the time the parties are at the table the expensive options are already on it.", "Buy-side negotiation is a distinct craft from sell-side, and the difference is mostly framing and question technique rather than leverage.", "AI's real value to a negotiator is in preparation and scenario work, not in the room."], "slug": "ep380-trump-neuvottelee-kuin-hullu-mies-arto-heimonen", "guestsCanonical": ["Arto Heimonen"], "guestPages": ["https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/guests/arto-heimonen/"], "page": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep380-trump-neuvottelee-kuin-hullu-mies-arto-heimonen/", "markdown": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep380-trump-neuvottelee-kuin-hullu-mies-arto-heimonen/index.md", "captions": null, "transcript": null, "videoId": "VGe3akk_934", "dbId": null, "qaCoveragePct": 0.0, "qaSemanticVerdict": "metadata_only", "aiArticleEn": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/ep380-trump-neuvottelee-kuin-hullu-mies-arto-heimonen/", "aiArticleFi": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/economy/ep380-trump-neuvottelee-kuin-hullu-mies-arto-heimonen/"}