{
  "title": "Tesla as a Winner Stock | Henri Blomster | Negotiator 219",
  "titleOriginal": "Tesla Voittajaosake | Henri Blomster | Neuvottelija 219",
  "episodeNumber": "219",
  "guest": "Henri Blomster",
  "publishedAt": "2023-11-06",
  "duration": "54:41",
  "durationIso": "PT54M41S",
  "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxEcZFphyc8",
  "fiCanonical": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/338-tesla-voittajaosake-henri-blomster-neuvottelija-219",
  "originalLanguage": "fi",
  "format": "full",
  "topics": [
    "investing_markets",
    "ai_enterprise_tech"
  ],
  "description": "Asilo Asset Management holds about twelve stocks, and Tesla is one of the largest. The starting point is Bessembinder's finding that only a few percent of listed companies carry the whole index return, which leaves two rational strategies: a cheap broad index, or an active hunt for superstar companies. Blomster derives Tesla's cost advantage from Wright's law, the gigapress, the 48-volt architecture and the Texas lithium refinery, sets it against the modular trap of the legacy carmaker and its 150-plus software suppliers, and opens the energy business that two of the five large bank analyses he sampled did not account for at all. The valuation is then taken apart on EVA metrics: Future Growth Reliance sits at 80 percent, and the current price embeds five years of 25 percent growth. Not investment advice. Commercial collaboration: Neova.",
  "chapters": [
    {
      "t": "00:00",
      "title": "The guest, and a Tesla position worth millions",
      "seconds": 0
    },
    {
      "t": "01:14",
      "title": "Asilo's philosophy and superstar companies",
      "seconds": 74
    },
    {
      "t": "02:57",
      "title": "Why thirty stocks does not simulate the index",
      "seconds": 177
    },
    {
      "t": "03:16",
      "title": "The Slack example and an older disagreement",
      "seconds": 196
    },
    {
      "t": "04:14",
      "title": "The claim: Tesla as a massively larger Slack",
      "seconds": 254
    },
    {
      "t": "04:36",
      "title": "Cars, energy and AI as markets",
      "seconds": 276
    },
    {
      "t": "05:23",
      "title": "Technology arrives in bursts, and Nokia's fate",
      "seconds": 323
    },
    {
      "t": "06:00",
      "title": "Wright's law and the fall in price",
      "seconds": 360
    },
    {
      "t": "06:41",
      "title": "Cars displaced horses in a decade",
      "seconds": 401
    },
    {
      "t": "07:10",
      "title": "Wright's law in solar panels too",
      "seconds": 430
    },
    {
      "t": "08:16",
      "title": "Production in your own hands versus modularity",
      "seconds": 496
    },
    {
      "t": "09:28",
      "title": "Cooling an electric motor, and requirements nobody needs",
      "seconds": 568
    },
    {
      "t": "10:25",
      "title": "Fremont, robotisation and extreme oscillation",
      "seconds": 625
    },
    {
      "t": "11:04",
      "title": "The idiot index and the lesson from SpaceX",
      "seconds": 664
    },
    {
      "t": "12:13",
      "title": "Golden rules that freeze the engineers",
      "seconds": 733
    },
    {
      "t": "13:52",
      "title": "Gigafactories: logistical hell and logistical dream",
      "seconds": 832
    },
    {
      "t": "14:47",
      "title": "Lithium refining in Texas and the dry battery process",
      "seconds": 887
    },
    {
      "t": "16:35",
      "title": "The gigapress and the suppliers who said no",
      "seconds": 995
    },
    {
      "t": "17:20",
      "title": "Moving to a 48-volt architecture",
      "seconds": 1040
    },
    {
      "t": "18:26",
      "title": "The model range, volumes and Q3 margins",
      "seconds": 1106
    },
    {
      "t": "20:24",
      "title": "Cybertruck: volumes and margins",
      "seconds": 1224
    },
    {
      "t": "21:02",
      "title": "Musk and Jobs as communicators",
      "seconds": 1262
    },
    {
      "t": "22:33",
      "title": "Company culture inside a listed company, and OKRs",
      "seconds": 1353
    },
    {
      "t": "23:24",
      "title": "Difficult chief executives, and the Volkswagen problem",
      "seconds": 1404
    },
    {
      "t": "24:02",
      "title": "The energy business missing from the bank analyses",
      "seconds": 1442
    },
    {
      "t": "25:07",
      "title": "Megapack and the 2030 target",
      "seconds": 1507
    },
    {
      "t": "25:28",
      "title": "Solar as the cheapest energy",
      "seconds": 1528
    },
    {
      "t": "26:44",
      "title": "Chinese dominance in panels and electric cars",
      "seconds": 1604
    },
    {
      "t": "27:29",
      "title": "Self-driving and the neural-network approach",
      "seconds": 1649
    },
    {
      "t": "28:04",
      "title": "The argument over lidar and cameras",
      "seconds": 1684
    },
    {
      "t": "29:03",
      "title": "Energy cash flow and information hiding in plain sight",
      "seconds": 1743
    },
    {
      "t": "30:07",
      "title": "Wärtsilä's energy business as a comparison",
      "seconds": 1807
    },
    {
      "t": "31:14",
      "title": "Tesla's AI competence and hiring the best",
      "seconds": 1874
    },
    {
      "t": "32:48",
      "title": "Dojo, built from a clean sheet",
      "seconds": 1968
    },
    {
      "t": "34:03",
      "title": "Thermal expansion, and solving it in-house",
      "seconds": 2043
    },
    {
      "t": "35:25",
      "title": "Set against Nvidia's fifteen years",
      "seconds": 2125
    },
    {
      "t": "36:19",
      "title": "Full Self-Driving: the promises and the risks",
      "seconds": 2179
    },
    {
      "t": "37:09",
      "title": "From level four to level five",
      "seconds": 2229
    },
    {
      "t": "37:44",
      "title": "Neuralink, and a truck with impossible specs",
      "seconds": 2264
    },
    {
      "t": "38:15",
      "title": "Robotaxis and the time they free up",
      "seconds": 2295
    },
    {
      "t": "39:03",
      "title": "A car like an Airbnb apartment",
      "seconds": 2343
    },
    {
      "t": "39:42",
      "title": "Valuable options nobody prices in",
      "seconds": 2382
    },
    {
      "t": "40:19",
      "title": "Move fast and break things",
      "seconds": 2419
    },
    {
      "t": "41:22",
      "title": "Optimus and scalable training",
      "seconds": 2482
    },
    {
      "t": "42:26",
      "title": "Baby-form general AI, and the flex",
      "seconds": 2546
    },
    {
      "t": "43:07",
      "title": "Economic value added and Future Growth Reliance",
      "seconds": 2587
    },
    {
      "t": "44:13",
      "title": "Five years of 25 percent growth",
      "seconds": 2653
    },
    {
      "t": "44:54",
      "title": "Volkswagen's cheap multiple as a trap",
      "seconds": 2694
    },
    {
      "t": "45:33",
      "title": "Momentum, short sellers and the technical picture",
      "seconds": 2733
    },
    {
      "t": "46:43",
      "title": "What the valuation means with no growth at all",
      "seconds": 2803
    },
    {
      "t": "47:00",
      "title": "The logic of a twelve-stock portfolio",
      "seconds": 2820
    },
    {
      "t": "48:35",
      "title": "Time for the competitors and the supply chains",
      "seconds": 2915
    },
    {
      "t": "49:06",
      "title": "Over 150 software suppliers in one car",
      "seconds": 2946
    },
    {
      "t": "50:25",
      "title": "Over-the-air updates and the direct sales model",
      "seconds": 3025
    },
    {
      "t": "50:54",
      "title": "When the challenger beats the incumbent",
      "seconds": 3054
    },
    {
      "t": "51:30",
      "title": "A latticework of mental models as process",
      "seconds": 3090
    },
    {
      "t": "52:38",
      "title": "Disruption is not a faster horse",
      "seconds": 3158
    },
    {
      "t": "53:34",
      "title": "When the winner is not yet known",
      "seconds": 3214
    },
    {
      "t": "54:02",
      "title": "Not investment advice, and the Sisäpiiri continuation",
      "seconds": 3242
    }
  ],
  "sourceTranscriptType": "macwhisper_sbv",
  "subtitleMethod": "none",
  "provenance": "Owner page written from a MacWhisper transcription of the Finnish audio held in the estate's final subtitle set, checked against YouTube metadata and the neuvottelija.fi episode record. Chapter timecodes are the publisher's own chapter list from the Finnish show notes, translated. Figures attributed to the guest are given as he stated them, including the two he explicitly hedged. The episode carries a commercial collaboration with Neova, disclosed in the opening and repeated here. No English caption track is published with this page.",
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  "page": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep219-tesla-voittajaosake-henri-blomster/",
  "markdown": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep219-tesla-voittajaosake-henri-blomster/index.md",
  "captions": null,
  "transcript": null
}