{"title": "Worries About the Economy and Unemployment | Mauri Kotamäki | Negotiator 167", "titleOriginal": "Kansantalouden huolet ja työttömyys | Mauri Kotamäki | Neuvottelija 167", "episodeNumber": "167", "guest": "Mauri Kotamäki", "publishedAt": "2022-12-25", "duration": "40:35", "durationIso": "PT40M35S", "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbUCWR81oj0", "fiCanonical": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/244-kansantalouden-huolet-ja-tyottomyys-mauri-kotamaki-neuvottel", "originalLanguage": "fi", "format": "full", "topics": ["finnish_economy_policy"], "description": "Mauri Kotamäki, chief economist of the Finnish export credit agency Finnvera, goes through the macro picture at the turn of the year: central banks slowing the pace of rate rises, inflation turning first in the United States and later in Europe. The conversation also asks whether fiscal dominance was ever the binding constraint many expected it to be, and why accelerating inflation in Japan is larger news than it looks. Kotamäki uses the data to separate how much of the rise in employment is policy and how much is world growth, and why Finland's structural unemployment stays high regardless. It closes on electricity subsidies, the self-employed pension reform, and a comparison between the Chinese and Soviet growth models.", "chapters": [], "sourceTranscriptType": "none", "subtitleMethod": "none", "provenance": "Owner page assembled from YouTube metadata and the neuvottelija.fi episode record. The publisher published no chapter marks for this episode, so none are listed here. No transcript is published either — the channel has no English caption track for this episode and the Finnish one is YouTube's automatic track. The guest is chief economist of a state-owned financing company, and the episode discusses state financing instruments among other things; the macro readings are those of late December 2022 and several have since resolved.", "coreTheses": ["Most of the improvement in Finnish employment tracks world growth rather than domestic policy, and the two are separable in the data.", "Structural unemployment is untouched by the cycle, which is why a strong employment number can coexist with an unchanged structural problem.", "Fiscal dominance was widely expected to bind before inflation turned, and it did not — a forecast worth marking as it was.", "Japan's inflation turning is the larger signal, because it ends the one standing counter-example to the whole framework."], "slug": "ep167-kansantalouden-huolet-ja-tyottomyys-mauri-kotamaki", "guestsCanonical": ["Mauri Kotamäki"], "guestPages": ["https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/guests/mauri-kotamaki/"], "page": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep167-kansantalouden-huolet-ja-tyottomyys-mauri-kotamaki/", "markdown": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep167-kansantalouden-huolet-ja-tyottomyys-mauri-kotamaki/index.md", "captions": null, "transcript": null, "videoId": "YbUCWR81oj0", "dbId": null, "qaCoveragePct": 0.0, "qaSemanticVerdict": "metadata_only", "aiArticleEn": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/ep167-kansantalouden-huolet-ja-tyottomyys-mauri-kotamaki/", "aiArticleFi": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/economy/ep167-kansantalouden-huolet-ja-tyottomyys-mauri-kotamaki/"}