{"title": "The Finnish Economy in Trouble Again | Stefan Törnqvist | Negotiator 116", "titleOriginal": "Suomen talous taas ongelmissa | Stefan Törnqvist | Neuvottelija 116", "episodeNumber": "116", "guest": "Stefan Törnqvist", "publishedAt": "2022-01-09", "duration": "28:58", "durationIso": "PT28M58S", "youtube": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UlU9yaWgKM", "fiCanonical": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/fi/episodes/146-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist-neuvottelija", "originalLanguage": "fi", "format": "full", "topics": ["finnish_economy_policy", "investing_markets"], "description": "Stefan Törnqvist returns to the channel and holds to the most provocative claim of his previous appearance: everyone benefits from the euro except the Finnish national economy. The sharpest observation is about timing — because pay movements in Finland run one way and there is no downward flexibility in a downturn, large increases could never really be granted in a boom either, and he sees the same signs now as in 2007 and 2008. On monetary policy he holds that the Fed is tightening and the European Central Bank cannot, because a market rate cannot be imposed on Italian debt without a banking crisis that Basel regulation has built into the balance sheets.", "chapters": [], "sourceTranscriptType": "none", "subtitleMethod": "none", "provenance": "Owner page assembled from YouTube metadata and the neuvottelija.fi episode record. The publisher published no chapter marks for this episode, so none are listed here. No transcript is published either — the channel has no English caption track for this episode and the Finnish one is YouTube's automatic track. The claims about the euro, the European Central Bank's room for manoeuvre and Italian sovereign debt are the guest's own and are contested; no economist holding the opposing view is present. Recorded 9 January 2022, before the inflation and rate moves of that year, and the forecasts in it should be read against what followed.", "coreTheses": ["Wages that cannot fall cannot safely rise much either, which turns a distributional argument into a timing one.", "The 2007–2008 comparison is specific: a boom in which large settlements are granted is the condition that makes the following downturn unmanageable.", "The ECB's constraint is not inflation but Italian debt, and Basel put that debt on bank balance sheets by design.", "The claim that everyone gains from the euro except Finland is stated as a conclusion about one economy's structure, not as a general case against monetary union."], "slug": "ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist", "guestsCanonical": ["Stefan Törnqvist"], "guestPages": ["https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/guests/stefan-tornqvist/"], "page": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/", "markdown": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/podcast/episodes/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/index.md", "captions": null, "transcript": null, "videoId": "_UlU9yaWgKM", "dbId": null, "qaCoveragePct": 0.0, "qaSemanticVerdict": "metadata_only", "aiArticleEn": "https://www.neuvottelija.com/ai/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/", "aiArticleFi": "https://www.neuvottelija.fi/economy/ep116-suomen-talous-taas-ongelmissa-stefan-tornqvist/"}