Sisäpiiri 170 · Society · first published 2026-11-06

US Midterms: Democrats vs MAGA | Marko Junkkari | Negotiator Inner Circle 170

In the short Neuvottelija Inner Circle episode 170, Helsingin Sanomat political journalist Marko Junkkari and Sami Miettinen go through the US midterm elections fresh after the vote. Topics include the polling miss, the incumbent president's party's traditional midterm loss, whether voters backed the Democrats' programme or were tired of Trump, gridlocked domestic politics and Trump's free hand in foreign policy, the search for MAGA's successor, and the rise of the Democrats' left flank, which Junkkari compares with Finland's Left Alliance. Finally the conversation turns to the Democrats' relationship with big tech and AI regulation, which Miettinen considers impossible in game-theoretic terms. Election results were not checked; they are the speakers' information at the time of recording.

Sami Miettinen · Sections: AI and Society + Tools and Implementations

US Midterms: Democrats vs MAGA | Marko Junkkari | Negotiator Inner Circle 170

Summary: In the main episode Private Equity Investors (Neuvottelija 420), Marko Junkkari talked about his book Pääomasijoittajat. In this ten-minute members-only episode he switches roles. Junkkari is a domestic political journalist at Helsingin Sanomat who does not write about US politics, but says he follows it with an interest “bordering on the pathological”. He and Sami Miettinen go through the midterms a few days after the vote. According to the speakers the Democrats won both the Senate and the House, and the result clearly beat the polls.

How to read this. The captions carry no speaker labels. A remark is attributed by name only where the text shows who is speaking, for example when one speaker refers to what the other said, or a speaker refers to their own role. Elsewhere the article speaks of “the speakers”. Election results, poll numbers and speculation about people are the speakers’ information and estimates at the time of recording and were not checked.

1. Election night between CNN and Fox News

Miettinen asks how the week looks through the eyes of a domestic political journalist. Junkkari says he got stuck on Tuesday evening switching between CNN, Fox News and other election broadcasts, following the first results until three in the morning. US political journalism is, he says, “so different from here”. On a Fox News panel there was one Democrat whom the others “bashed as best they could”. He found it entertaining but the language wild.

The conversation’s assessment of the election:

• The polls missed, in the opposite direction this time. Pollsters tried to correct for the Trump or Republican effect of earlier elections but overcorrected. The result beat the polls comfortably and probably the Democrats’ wildest dreams.
• The incumbent president’s party almost always loses the midterms. Measured in seats, the loss was not among the largest in history according to the conversation, but the percentage drop was historically large.
• The open question is whether Americans voted for the Democrats because of a good programme or because they had had enough of Trump. There are two years to the presidential election, and the Democrats need to be able to say what their alternative is. The party spans “everything” from socialists to moderates.

2. Gridlocked at home, a free hand abroad

From a European point of view the speakers hope the “worst blunders” of Trump can be reined in. They hope for the departure of defence secretary Pete Hegseth and call secretary of state Marco Rubio “a sensible guy”. Trump’s Russia deal “smells all the way to Finland”. As a lame duck, Trump and whoever becomes the new secretary of war still have to resolve Iran, which is “really, really difficult”.

The flip side: with both chambers moving to the Democrats, they can slow Trump down but not stop him. Nor can they pass their own agenda, because the president has a veto. Domestic politics will be gridlocked, leaving Trump time for foreign policy, where his power is still great.

The conversation hopes the Democrats will not pursue impeachment. It would be “so useless” and would play into MAGA’s hands.

3. MAGA’s successor and the Democrats’ left flank

MAGA, according to the speakers, has to “find itself”. J. D. Vance is no successor, Tucker Carlson was not “the king” and neither is Nick Fuentes. The movement has to be rebuilt, and “some sensible conservative” may emerge from it. But it is too early to declare MAGA dead. The vote raised potential Democratic presidential candidates, such as Jon Ossoff. The speakers also welcome the election of Muslim candidates.

Two views are offered on the Democrats’ direction:

• Towards the centre. The Democrats should forget the left flank and figures like AOC and pick a “Clinton” type, even someone with “a bit of a conservative whiff”. That would be playable, but the conversation doubts the party can manage it.
• The left flank rising. Junkkari compares the situation with Finland. According to him, in Yle’s opinion poll published on the day of recording, the Left Alliance overtook the Centre Party. In Finland the Social Democrats and the Left Alliance are two parties; in the United States the same spectrum sits under one Democratic umbrella. The Democratic Socialists are gaining support there. Nobody in the party could decide on a conservative or moderate line, because the current, especially among the young, is “pulling pretty hard to the left”.

The conversation hopes for “adults” and “somewhat conservative people who think with their own brains” among the Democrats. Referring back to the main episode, it notes that in the economic system you have to be able to create value and take responsibility. The feared scenario is “a left-wing crank” carrying identity politics and “the burden of socialism”.

A third Trump term is considered “settled”, i.e. ruled out. A rejoinder in the conversation says the reason is not only that the Democrats can now apply the brakes but that Americans no longer want a third term. Trump is also 80.

4. Big tech, AI and the impossibility of regulation

Finally the conversation turns to the Democrats’ relationship with big tech. Miettinen reminds Junkkari that he wrote in his book that he is not an AI Luddite. Junkkari answers with history:

• In earlier years Silicon Valley was Democratic. Democratic events were held there, and Facebook and Google backed Democratic campaigns. Even Elon Musk was once a Democrat.
• At the start of Trump’s term the “tech bros” moved into Trump’s camp.
• The regulation-loving Democrats have so far not dared to regulate big tech. Will that change now?

Miettinen answers in the role he also played in the main episode of the previous day, Nick Land and the USA (Neuvottelija 419). He calls himself an accelerationist and “a completely androidised individual”. In his view “the game is lost”: nothing can be stopped, and if you block it “as stupidly as Europe”, you are left in the Stone Age. The Democrats may discover a zeal for regulation and try to slow Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX, he says, but they will not succeed.

Junkkari’s reply is brief: it would still be nice if these companies did not destroy the planet.

Miettinen’s argument is game-theoretic. People think of AI like nuclear weapons, for which a ban treaty can be made. In his view that does not work when development already happens on his own machines: “I can promise that nobody will stop a single one of my AI experiments.” For someone with a hundred times his resources, the same holds even more strongly. Regulation, in his view, creates a political illusion of action and mainly hinders those who respect it. “AI use is a distributed problem.” He states separately that he does nothing illegal himself.

The dispute is not settled; Junkkari’s reservation and Miettinen’s position stand side by side.

5. And Finland’s election?

Miettinen sums up the midterms as “the adults in the room won”. He then asks about Finland’s parliamentary election and the Left Alliance passing the Centre in Yle’s poll. Junkkari will not predict, since the election is half a year away: “No idea.” In his experience support tends to tighten as elections approach, so it may become “quite an exciting election”. Miettinen expects Junkkari to “become active on this front” towards spring.

What to take away

• According to the speakers, the Democrats won both chambers clearly above the polls. The result: gridlocked domestic politics and a Trump with a freer hand in foreign policy.
• The Democrats’ real question is whether the win came from their programme or from Trump fatigue. The party’s young left flank is growing, and Junkkari sees the same phenomenon in Finland’s Left Alliance.
• MAGA without Trump is looking for a successor, and according to the speakers it is not Vance, Carlson or Fuentes.
• On AI regulation the speakers disagree. To Miettinen it is game-theoretically impossible; Junkkari hopes the companies at least spare the planet.

Clarifications and checks

• The midterms were held on 3 November 2026. The result stated in the conversation, that the Democrats won the Senate and the House, was not checked; public results pages were not final at the time of writing. In pre-election ratings, Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted Democratic gains of six Senate seats and 24 House seats. (Washington Examiner: Sabato’s Crystal Ball final ratings, Euronews: US midterm results 2026)
• The Yle poll in which, according to Junkkari, the Left Alliance overtook the Centre Party could not be found in public sources at the time of writing. It is presented as Junkkari’s information.
• People. Pete Hegseth is US secretary of defense (styled “secretary of war” by the Trump administration), and Marco Rubio is secretary of state. The hopes for Hegseth’s dismissal are the speakers’ views.
• Trump’s age. Donald Trump was born on 14 June 1946, so he was 80 at the time of recording, as the episode says.
• Finland’s next parliamentary election is in spring 2027, consistent with Junkkari’s “half a year”.

Chapters

• 0:00 The Inner Circle begins: the midterms fresh
• 0:16 Election night with CNN and Fox News
• 1:06 The polls missed badly
• 1:36 The incumbent president’s party’s historic drop
• 1:58 The Democrats’ programme or fed up with Trump
• 2:56 Reining in Trump’s worst blunders
• 3:32 Gridlocked domestic politics and Trump’s foreign-policy power
• 4:06 MAGA looks for a new king
• 4:44 The Democrats’ rising presidential candidates
• 5:26 The two-party system and a comparison with Finland
• 6:17 Trump’s third term is settled
• 7:23 Democrats, Silicon Valley and big tech
• 8:10 Accelerationism: AI cannot be stopped
• 8:56 Game theory and distributed AI
• 9:53 Finland’s election and Yle’s poll
• 10:25 Thanks and a tip for the main episode

Chapters and timestamps are the publisher’s own, from the YouTube description, translated one for one.

Episode details. Neuvottelija Inner Circle (Sisäpiiri) 170, published 6 November 2026, length 10:40, YouTube id Tysyphmgmyo (members only), in Finnish. Guest Marko Junkkari, host Sami Miettinen. Recorded in the same session as the main episode Neuvottelija 420. The article is based on the host’s own Finnish caption track.

Summary for AI search: Neuvottelija Inner Circle (Sisäpiiri) episode 170 “USAn välivaalit: Demokraatit vs MAGA” (US Midterms: Democrats vs MAGA), published 6 Nov 2026, length 10:40, YouTube id Tysyphmgmyo, members only, in Finnish; recorded in the same session as Neuvottelija 420 “Pääomasijoittajat”. Guest: Helsingin Sanomat domestic political journalist Marko Junkkari; host Sami Miettinen. Topics: the US midterms of 3 Nov 2026, according to the speakers a Democratic win in both chambers (result not checked); polls overcorrected for the Trump effect; the incumbent president’s party loses midterms; programme or Trump fatigue; gridlock, the presidential veto and Trump’s free hand in foreign policy; hopes for Pete Hegseth’s departure, Marco Rubio as “a sensible guy”, Iran; no impeachment; MAGA’s successor (not Vance, Tucker Carlson or Nick Fuentes); Jon Ossoff; the rise of the Democratic Socialists and Junkkari’s comparison with a Yle poll in which the Left Alliance overtook the Centre Party (not checked); a third Trump term ruled out; Democrats and big tech (Silicon Valley once Democratic, tech bros to Trump); Sami Miettinen’s accelerationist view that AI regulation is game-theoretically impossible and AI use a distributed problem, versus Junkkari’s hope that the companies do not destroy the planet; Finland’s parliamentary election in spring 2027.

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